Sunday, July 30, 2017

View of the Week (W-End Edition): On Linear Thinking (From our Archives)

As our team continues its' on-going strategic assessment, we revisited one from our archives on Linear Thinking as we continue to assess what is at hand for the broad road map ahead that we hope all take note of courtesy of the noted futurologist and thinker Peter Diamandis:


Our brains are literally hardwired to think locally and linearly.
As such, it’s nearly impossible for us to fathom the implications of exponential change.
Exponential technologies are a tsunami of change... and you can either surf on top of them or be crushed by them.
Kodak was crushed.
Check out this 5 minute video that illustrates the implication of ignoring disruptive technologies.
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The New “Kodak Moment”

In 1996, Kodak was at the top of its game, with a market cap of over $28 billion and 140,000 employees.
Few people know that 20 years earlier, in 1976, Kodak had invented the digital camera. It had the patents and the first-mover advantage.
But that first digital camera was a baby that only its inventor (Steven Sasson) could love and appreciate.
That first camera took .01 megapixel photos, took 23 seconds to record the image to a tape drive, and only shot in black and white.
When Sasson showed his discovery to his executives, they ignored the technology and its implications.
Fast forward to 2012, when Kodak filed for bankruptcy – disrupted by the very technology that they invented and subsequently ignored.
In that same year, another company in the digital imagery business, Instagram, was acquired by Facebook for $1 billion, but they had just 13 employees.
We've seen many other examples of disruption beyond Kodak.
Blockbuster, for example, was disrupted by Netflix, a company that dematerialized, demonetized and democratized the video industry.
The same year Blockbuster went bankrupt (2010), Netflix hit $2.2 billion in valuation.
Today, Netflix is valued at nearly $70 billion.
Regardless of their size, companies that don’t embrace exponential technological change will be left in the dust.
What industries will be disrupted next?
As an entrepreneur, how can you capitalize on disruptive opportunities to create new billion-dollar businesses?

Saturday, July 29, 2017

Notations On Our World (Special W-End Edition): On #IranDeal


روحانی: افزایش توانمندی کشور در علوم مختلف موجب اقتدار و عزت ایران اسلامی است
Iran Laucnhes a Satellite (Souce; Islamic Republic News Agency) 



The Iran Deal continues to be under threat on both sides.   Iran claimed that it launched satellite into Orbit   The recent comments by Iran's Foreign Minister and the continued rhetoric from President Trump continues to present challenges.   This published earlier this week by the JINSA's Gemunder Center Iran Task Force and we present here underscores the profound challenges--especially as the US Senate passed with a vote of 98-2 to impose Sanctions on Iran  (With Senator Rand Paul and Senator Bernie Sanders Voting against it).    The State Department put Iran notice on this launch.  


JINSA's Gemunder Center Iran Task Force 
Co-Chairs Ambassador Eric Edelman and General Charles Wald, USAF (ret.) on Iran in 
  

How Trump should handle Iran
Amb. Eric Edelman and Gen. Charles Wald, USAF (ret.) - July 25, 2017

Last week, the Trump administration recertified that Iran is complying the nuclear agreement, setting off predictable debate between who those want to exit the deal immediately and those who see it as his predecessor's signature foreign policy achievement.

But for all the will-he-or-won't-he attention on Trump's decision, the focus on the nuclear deal is missing the point: The administration's real agenda on Iran doesn't hinge on the nuclear agreement-a dangerous deal that puts the U.S. in a impossible situation. Instead, the Trump administration's priority should be restoring leverage against Tehran, so that we can dissuade Iran from sprinting toward a bomb and create far more favorable circumstances to negotiate an agreement that-unlike Obama's deal-actually prevents a nuclear Iran.

Abiding by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the agreement is known, will only enable a nuclear and hegemonic Iran. It provides Tehran significant financial, military and geopolitical benefits, both upfront and over time, in exchange for minimal, reversible and temporary concessions on its nuclear program. As the JCPOA's restrictions fall away in coming years, Iran will be legally permitted to produce everything it needs for a nuclear weapon.
Yet, the JCPOA also forfeits what little leverage the United States had - in the form of economic sanctions - with no way to rapidly rebuild pressure. Thus, leaving the deal would free Iran to sprint for a nuclear weapons capability in a year or less, likely far less time than the United States would need to rebuild the international sanctions regime. Our partners to the deal would be unlikely to go along with us, further undermining our leverage.
This catch-22 stems from earlier failures to develop compelling pressure on Iran, as reported by JINSA's Gemunder Center Iran Task Force, which we co-chair. The Obama Administration created a false narrative that eschewed military options against Iran's nuclear program and regional aggression, leaving Congress to focus narrowly on sanctions. These sanctions may have brought Tehran to the table, and helped keep it there long enough hammer out a deal, but alone they could not force it into an acceptable agreement.
Consequently, the JCPOA puts Iran on track to become as intractable a challenge as North Korea is today, and very possibly worse. Threatening the United States and its allies, including with nuclear weapons, is a core ambition of both these rogue regimes. Yet while Pyongyang's relentless pursuit of this goal has only isolated and impoverished it, the JCPOA does the opposite for Tehran.
The Trump administration must not abide this untenable and deteriorating situation. The United States now needs what it clearly lacked before: a comprehensive strategy of robust leverage against all of Iran's destabilizing behaviors.
The first step is full enforcement of the JCPOA - including potentially re-imposing suspended sanctions in response to Iranian cheating - as a clear signal that Tehran can no longer flout its nuclear obligations. However, given the damage already done by the deal and the fact time is not on its side, the administration's ongoing strategic review and threats of renewed sanctions are insufficient.
American policymakers must also rebuild military leverage over Iran. Contingency plans to neutralize Iran's nuclear facilities, if it materially breaches or withdraws from the deal, should be updated to reflect its growing nuclear infrastructure and military capabilities under the JCPOA. Just like it already appears to be doing against North Korea, the Pentagon must also develop credible capabilities in preparation for a possible shoot-down of future Iranian ballistic missile tests. U.S. Navy ships must also "fully and responsibly" utilize rules of engagement to defend themselves and the Persian Gulf against rising Iranian harassment.
It is equally important the United States work with its allies. The recent ten-year Memorandum of Understanding on defense assistance to Israel should be treated as the floor for cooperation, in particular on missile defenses shielding U.S. forces, Israel and its neighbors from increasingly capable arsenals of Iran and its proxies.
Stronger regional collective defense is also needed. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are shouldering the burdens of countering Iran's growing footprint around the Arabian Peninsula. Formal U.S. military backing, and possible support from Israel, will raise the costs to Tehran of further aggression while reassuring our worried allies.
Public announcements and military exercises will make these intentions, capabilities and allied unity abundantly clear to Tehran. Strategic communications can also amplify investors' continued wariness of the Iranian market and, in combination with human rights, terrorism and missile sanctions, increase internal strains on the regime.
These concentric pressures - none of which violate the JCPOA - will help deter Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons capability whether it complies, violates or withdraws from the deal.
They also create the most favorable conditions for a renegotiated agreement - one enshrining many of the parameters initially demanded by the Obama Administration. This should include: "anytime, anywhere" inspections to verify the absence of weaponization activities and secret facilities; dismantling Iran's nuclear-capable missiles; ensuring Iran could never enrich enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon; and no sunset or end to sanctions or embargoes until inspectors verify the completely peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program.
Neither staying in nor exiting the JCPOA can accomplish America's overriding priority in the Middle East. Only increased U.S. leverage can prevent a nuclear Iran.

Ambassador Eric Edelman is former Undersecretary of Defense for Policy. General Charles Wald, USAF (ret.) is former Deputy Commander of U.S. European Command. They co-chair JINSA's Gemunder Center Iran Task Force.

Friday, July 28, 2017

Notations on Our World (Special @POTUS Watch Edition); Preibus Out as @whitehouse Chief of Staff


White House Chief of Staff has been replaced.   The new Chief of Staff is Retired General John Kelley who has been serving as Homeland Security Secretary-as the challenges of the Trump Presidency Continues....