Perspectives: January 2026

FILE - President Donald Trump speaks before departing on Marine One from the South Lawn of the White House, Jan. 20, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

Many Americans are uneasy about President Donald Trump’s widespread use of ICE to quell immigration protests. | Alex Brandon, File/AP

Fresh fractures are forming in Trump’s coalition on everything from his aggressive deportation campaign and ICE deployment to abortion ahead of the crucial midterms — and with the president suffering a brutal week of polling, it’s no wonder the big, beautiful coalition is splintering.

ICEd out: On the former, the latest installment of The POLITICO Poll, conducted from last Friday to Monday, finds Americans uneasy of Trump’s widespread use of ICE to quell immigration protests. Some exclusive nuggets to Playbook:

Fifty-one percent — including 31 percent of 2024 Trump voters — say it is not worth risking the lives of anti-ICE protesters to conduct immigration enforcement.
A 41 percent plurality say it isn’t worth risking the lives of ICE agents. Thirty-four percent, however, say risks to agents’ lives are a price worth paying.

An even more telling insight for the health of the coalition among some of the more moderate voters Trump won: Thirty-five percent of non-MAGA Trump voters say it isn’t worth risking the lives of anti-ICE protesters for immigration enforcement, while just 27 percent of MAGA Trump voters say the same.

But on views of agents’ safety, 34 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters say it is not worth risking the lives of ICE agents, while a larger share — 47 percent — say those risks are a price worth paying to carry out enforcement activities.

Our colleagues Myah Ward, Samuel Benson and Erin Doherty are out this morning with a look at how this slippage is playing out ahead of November’s elections.

“As midterms approach, GOP lawmakers, candidates, strategists and people close to the White House are warning that the administration’s mass deportations policy — and the wall-to-wall coverage of enforcement operations, arrests of U.S. citizens and clashes between protesters and federal officials — could cost them their razor-thin House majority,” they report.

And it’s the swing voters who fueled Trump’s return to the White House who “are increasingly wary of how the president is implementing a central campaign promise,” they note.

Eye-popping quote: “If we don’t change our approach, it will have a negative effect on the midterms, for sure,” said Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), who recently decided not to seek reelection.

Monitoring the situation: “A person close to the White House, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said Republicans have to keep the focus on criminal arrests, public safety and the Trump administration’s success in securing the southern border, which are more popular with voters across the board, the person said,” they write. “Otherwise, they worried, the GOP is losing support with moderate Republicans, independents, Latinos and young voters.”

But but but: Don’t write the obituary for the Trumpian realignment just yet, our colleague Ian Ward notes in an interview with conservative pollster and strategist Patrick Ruffini, “whose 2024 book “Party of the People” was widely credited with predicting the contours of Trump’s electoral realignment,” Ward writes. The erosion in the coalition hasn’t yet extended to the white working-class voters and working-class Latinos and Asian Americans Trump brought into the fold, Ruffini said.

His advice: Focus on affordability. “I think that is undeniable,” he said. “It’s the number one issue among the swing voter electorate.”

All of which brings us to the second area where some coalitional cracks are forming: on abortion. Yesterday, MAGA influencer and Trump whisperer Laura Loomer found herself in an X spat with VP JD Vance over his White House-approved appearance at the annual March for Life rally in Washington. “There will inevitably be debates within this movement,” Vance said at the rally. “I think these are good, honest and natural debates. And frankly, they’re not just good for all of you — they help keep people like me honest.”

Loomer took exception to the messaging and said the issue of abortion was a loser for the GOP heading into the midterms.

For Loomer, the ghosts of Trump’s last midterm bloodbath are still alive. As of this morning, she was still unloading.

“Let’s stop with the gaslighting,” she said. “As I said yesterday, the Supreme Court has made abortion a states issue.”

Loomer, who occasionally earns private eye rolls from some West Wing staffers despite her closeness to Trump, told Playbook in an interview during the X dustup that her vote in 2028 “has to be earned.”

“I don’t believe in coronations,” she told us.

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9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

1. SPOTLIGHT ON MINNESOTA: Trump’s mass deportation campaign continued in full force across the country yesterday, triggering the most widespread protests and economic strikes yet against ICE operations in Minneapolis despite bitter cold, The Minnesota Star Tribune reports. Thousands protested in NYC yesterday too, per the NYT.

How it’s playing: The front page of the Star Tribune today is packed with stories about young children being detained (in two different instances); the administration’s lack of proof for its immigration arrest totals in the city; the protests; and the White House digitally altering a photo of an arrested protester. Judges ordered that she and two other protesters arrested for their church demonstration not be detained, per NBC.

The pushback: Border Patrol commander Greg Bovino and an ICE official are holding a press conference this morning to combat what they’ve called a “false narrative about what we do and who we are and who we arrest.”

Shocking new details of the investigation: Deputy AG Todd Blanche’s office ordered the federal probe into ICE agent Jonathan Ross’ killing of Renee Good to be transformed away from investigating Ross and toward investigating the late Good “for possible criminal liability,” MS NOW’s Carol Leonnig and Ken Dilanian report. A federal magistrate judge said no to their effort to change the warrant, saying a dead person can’t be a suspect. One FBI agent, Tracee Mergen, resigned after trying to investigate Ross and being pressured to stop, NYT’s Alan Feuer and Glenn Thrush scooped.

Knowing the protesters: “Your Friendly Neighborhood Resistance,” by N.Y. Mag’s Kerry Howley: “On the ground in Minneapolis, watching out for ICE at every corner, crosswalk, church, and school.”

Beyond Minnesota: A Colorado advocacy group said ICE agents left ace of spades cards in the cars of immigrants they arrested, harkening back to Vietnam War “death cards,” per The Denver Post’s Seth Klamann. ICE said it is investigating.

2. MORE IMMIGRATION FILES: HUD Secretary Scott Turner told the country’s public housing authorities yesterday that they need to search through their records to make sure there are no ineligible unauthorized immigrants receiving public housing — or risk punishment, NYT’s Chris Cameron reports. … DHS Secretary Kristi Noem was barred yesterday by a federal judge from ending Temporary Protected Status for roughly 3,700 people from Myanmar, per Cameron.

3. A PERMANENT MAJORITY? “How the TikTok deal could tighten Trump’s cultural grip,” by POLITICO’s Brendan Bordelon and colleagues: “The deal creating a majority-American board for TikTok’s U.S. arm puts President Donald Trump’s allies in charge of yet another driver of American culture. … [TikTok] stands out from the rest because of its huge appeal among teens and pre-teens who form the next rising blocs of voters. For Trump’s critics, that means years of worries about TikTok acting as a vector for Beijing’s propaganda are giving way to fears that its algorithm could soon serve up a flood of far-right, pro-MAGA content to impressionable users.”

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4. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: The Treasury Department slapped new sanctions yesterday on nine “shadow fleet” vessels accused of shipping prohibited Iranian oil, per AP’s Fatima Hussein. It’s the latest step in the administration’s pressure campaign responding to Iran’s crackdown on protesters, which activists say has killed several thousand people. Next door in Iraq, the U.S. has warned top officials to leave Iranian-backed armed groups out of the government or face punishment — possibly even limits on oil revenue for the first time, Reuters’ Maha El Dahan and colleagues report.

Syria latest: Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s military (and political) offensive against the U.S.-supported, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces amounted to a risky bet that he could call the U.S.’ bluff, defy their warnings and escape unscathed. And he succeeded, WSJ’s Jared Malsin and Lara Seligman report. But some of the Kurdish fighters, stunned by their rapid defeat, feel abandoned by their longtime U.S. allies, NBC’s Ammar Cheikh Omar and Chantal Da Silva report.

5. SEA CHANGE: “US Defense Strategy Downplays Threat of Confrontation With China,” by Bloomberg’s Courtney McBride and Jen Judson: “The Trump administration’s annual defense strategy report takes a softer tone toward China than in years past, calling for deterrence ‘through strength, not confrontation,’ while focusing on threats posed by migration and narcotics in the Western Hemisphere. The department’s long-awaited National Defense Strategy, released Friday evening, directs the Defense Department to ‘maintain a favorable balance of military power in the Indo-Pacific.’”

6. ANOTHER BOAT STRIKE: The U.S. military resumed its lethal strikes on alleged drug-trafficking boats for the first time this year, killing two people and leaving one survivor in the Pacific yesterday, per CNN.

7. IN THE HEMISPHERE: “Joint Chiefs Chairman Issues Rare Invitation to Foreign Military Heads,” by NYT’s Eric Schmitt: “Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, is convening a rare meeting next month of dozens of military chiefs from across the Western Hemisphere … Top military leaders from 34 countries, including nations such as Denmark, Britain and France that have territories in the area, have been invited to the gathering in Washington on Feb. 11. It is expected to focus, in part, on enhancing regional coordination in fighting drug trafficking and transnational criminal organizations.”

8. THE NEXT REGIME CHANGE PUSH: “Trump administration weighs naval blockade to halt Cuban oil imports,” by POLITICO’s Ben Lefebvre and Eric Bazail-Eimil: “That escalation has been sought by some critics of the Cuban government in the administration and backed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio … No decision has been made on whether to approve that move, but it could be among the suite of possible actions presented to President Donald Trump to force the end of Cuba’s communist government … A total blockade of oil imports into Cuba could then spark a humanitarian crisis, a possibility that has led some in the administration to push back against it.”