Thursday, January 5, 2023

Notations On Our World (Special Thursday Edition): In America This Week







The Republicans won a narrow majority in the House of Representatives in 2022—aided by gerrymandering and new laws that made it harder to vote—but they remain unable to come together to elect a speaker. In three ballots yesterday, Republican leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) could not muster a majority of the House to back him, as a group of 20 far-right Republicans are backing their own choices. The saga continued today with three more ballots; McCarthy still came up short.

In contrast, the Democrats have consistently given minority leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York 212 votes, more votes than McCarthy received but not a majority of the body. When former Speaker Nancy Pelosi nominated Jeffries yesterday, she blew him a kiss and the caucus rose up in a standing ovation.

Because it is still unorganized, the House technically has no members. No one is sworn in, and so they cannot perform their official duties or hire staff. About 70 new members brought their families to Washington, D.C., to watch their swearing in, and the extra days as the speakership contest drags on are becoming hard to manage.

The chaos suggests that Republican leadership does not have the skills it needs to govern. Leaders often have to negotiate in order to take power—Nancy Pelosi had to bring together a number of factions to win the speakership in 2019—but since 1923 those negotiations have been completed before the start of voting.

Just weeks ago, McCarthy and his supporters were furious at Senate Republicans for negotiating with their Democratic colleagues to pass the omnibus bill to fund the government, insisting they could do a better job. Now they can’t even agree on a speaker. “Thank God they weren’t in the majority on January 6,” Pelosi told reporters, “because that was the day you had to be organized to stave off what was happening, to save our democracy, to certify the election of the president.”

One story here is about competence. Josh Marshall of Talking Points Memo points out that Pelosi ran the House with virtually the same margin the Republicans have now and yet managed to hold her caucus together tightly enough to pass a slate of legislation that rivaled those of the Great Society and the New Deal. McCarthy can’t even organize the House, leaving the United States without a functioning Congress for the first time in a hundred years.

But there is a larger story here about the destruction of the traditional Republican Party over the past forty years. In those years, a party that believed the government had a role to play in leveling the country’s economic and racial playing fields was captured by a reactionary right wing determined to uproot any such government action. When voters—including Republicans—continued to support business regulation, a basic social safety net, and civil rights laws, the logical outcome of opposition to such measures was war on the government itself.

That war is not limited to the 20 far-right Republicans refusing to elect McCarthy speaker. Pundits note that those 20 have supported former president Trump’s positions, particularly the Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen. They also worked to overturn the 2020 election, challenging the electors from a number of states. But 139 Republicans, including McCarthy himself, voted in 2021 to challenge electors from a number of states and went on to embrace the Big Lie, and McCarthy’s staunchest supporter is extremist Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia.

And today, more than 60 prominent right-wing figures, from President Ronald Reagan’s attorney general Edwin Meese III to Trump lawyers Cleta Mitchell and John Eastman, who were both instrumental in the effort to overturn Biden’s election in 2020, and Justice Clarence Thomas’s wife Ginni Thomas, who also participated in that effort, declared themselves “disgusted with the business-as-usual, self-interested governance in Washington.” They declared their support for the 20.

The roots of today’s Republican worldview lie in the Reagan Revolution of 1980.

Reagan and his allies sought to dismantle the regulation of business and the social welfare state that cost tax dollars, but they recognized those policies were popular. So they fell back on an old Reconstruction era trope, arguing that social welfare programs and regulation were a form of socialism because they cost tax dollars that were paid primarily by white men while their benefits went to poor Americans, primarily Black people or people of color. In that formula, first articulated by former Confederates after the Civil War, minority voting was a form of socialism that would destroy America.

When Reagan used this argument, he emphasized its idea of economic individualism over its racism, but that racism was definitely there, and many of his supporters heard it. When he stood about seven miles from Philadelphia, Mississippi, where Ku Klux Klan members had murdered civil rights workers James Chaney, Andrew Goodman, and Michael Schwerner just 16 years before as they tried to register Black people to vote, and said “I believe in states’ rights,” the racist wing of the old Democratic Party knew what he meant and voted for him.

In the years since, party leaders cut taxes and deregulated business while rallying voters with warnings that government policies that regulated business, provided a social safety net, or protected civil rights were socialism that redistributed white tax dollars to minorities. In the 1990s, under the leadership of House speaker Newt Gingrich, Chamber of Commerce lawyer Grover Norquist, and talk radio host Rush Limbaugh, the party purged from its ranks traditional Republicans, replacing them with ideological fellow travelers.

As their policies threatened to lose voters by concentrating wealth upward and hollowing out the middle class, Republicans increasingly warned that minority voters wanted socialism and were destroying the nation to get it. Trump rode that narrative to power, and now tearing down the current government is the idea that drives the Republican base.

Just last night, in his apparent realization that the party is moving beyond him, Trump launched a new attack on Black Georgia election worker Ruby Freeman, falsely accusing her once again of delivering suitcases of fraudulent ballots in the 2020 presidential election to steal victory from him. Trump said he is fighting “the evils and treachery of the Radical Left monsters who want to see America die.”

That Republicans now have a wing openly determined to destroy the federal government is not a function of a few outliers who have wormed their way into Congress; it is the logical outcome of this worldview. Lawmakers like Matt Gaetz (R-FL) and Lauren Boebert (R-CO) are clearly enjoying the power they are currently wielding, but their larger project is the one the party has advertised since they were children: stopping the government from any of the actions it has called “Marxist” or “socialist,” burning it all down to make white Americans free.

Destruction doesn’t take skill at governance; it only requires obstruction. The 20 are good at that.

But a new era is pushing the Reagan era aside. Plenty of Republicans who want to deregulate business and cut taxes recognize that it is our democratic government and the rule of law that protects their investments, and that maintaining the government will take basic laws and the skills to negotiate and pass them.

At the same time, after two years of Democratic control, Americans have seen that government can work for them, and they appear to like the new laws that have created jobs—including in manufacturing—and invested in social services and are rebuilding infrastructure. Republicans who want to get reelected are moving away from the extremists to take credit for the laws passed under the Democrats. Just today, Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, Ohio governor Mike DeWine, and former Ohio senator Rob Portman—all Republicans—joined President Joe Biden, Democratic governor of Kentucky Andy Beshear, and Democratic Ohio senator Sherrod Brown in Covington, Kentucky, to visit the Brent Spence Bridge between Covington and Cincinnati, Ohio. The bridge is on one of the country’s busiest freight corridors and is being rebuilt with money from the bipartisan infrastructure law passed in 2021.

In Ohio yesterday, Jason Stephens, a Republican promising to stop far-right policies, joined with Democrats to snatch the speaker’s chair from a far-right Republican who focused on religion and opposing abortion rights and who believed he had sewn up the necessary votes in his party. A Democratic state representative told Morgan Trau of ABC News, “Speaker Stephens led a coalition of moderate lawmakers from across the aisle, who will now focus on delivering the common sense solutions that Ohioans sent us here to deliver…. Now we can work on investing in our communities, on public education and workforce development.”

Notes:

https://www.vox.com/2021/1/6/22218058/republicans-objections-election-results

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/07/us/elections/electoral-college-biden-objectors.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/02/nancy-pelosi-voted-house-speaker-as-democrats-take-majority.html

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/01/04/nation/there-isnt-any-house-speaker-drama-ripples-throughout-basic-congressional-function/

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2023/01/03/razor-thin-gop-majority-in-congress-rests-on-4-extra-seats-from-texas-gerrymander/

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trumps-offensive-ruby-freeman-reaches-ugly-new-level-rcna64038

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/04/politics/biden-kentucky-infrastructure-wednesday/index.html

https://conservativeactionproject.com/conservatives-call-for-new-house-leadership/

https://www.news5cleveland.com/news/politics/ohio-politics/moderate-republican-jason-stephens-snatches-ohio-house-speaker-position-in-surprise-upset



Tuesday, January 3, 2023

Notations On Our World (Special Tuesday Edition): Out & About in the World Today

 


2023 has begun in earnest!!
Our team was out and about in the City of Mission Viejo on New Years' Day and visited a Monument to Peace as challenges are ever so present in our World.

We present a series of mid-week #RandomThoughts as we await the election of  a new Speaker of the House in the US, as   a new President in Brazil was sworn in and as we await the new Year with thoughts courtesy the Economist of London and as a leading member of Congress, Congressman Kinzinger, leaves Congress: 

As 2023 dawns, what are the themes and trends to watch? Our annual publication, The World Ahead, considers the outlook for the coming year across politics, business, technology and culture. Our journalists, joined by guest writers, provide a range of predictions, analysis and insights to prepare you for the next 12 months. Here are some of the ideas that we think should be on your radar for 2023.

Happy New Year!  

Tom Standage
Deputy editor, The Economist and editor, The World Ahead 2023

Editor’s picks

A selection from The World Ahead 2023

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Podcast



POLITICO Playbook

BY EUGENE DANIELSRACHAEL BADE AND RYAN LIZZA

 

With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

DRIVING THE DAY

Happy new year, y’all!

It’s the first day of 2023 — time to take stock of where things are, look ahead at where things are headed and focus on building the future we want. Already, in some of the centers of power throughout the country and world, we can see 2023 taking shape.

President Joe Biden speaks.

President Joe Biden | Patrick Semansky/AP Photo

— AT THE WHITE HOUSE: President JOE BIDEN started 2022 with polling in the dumps, expectations of a wipeout in the midterms and members of his own party publicly calling for new blood to run for president in 2024.

One year later, things have changed.

As he sits in St. Croix ringing in 2023, “there is a strong and growing likelihood that he will run again and that an announcement could potentially come earlier than had been expected, possibly as soon as mid-February,” our colleague Jonathan Lemire writes this morning.

FWIW: The folks who talked to Jonathan made it clear Biden hasn’t yet committed to run in 2024, and is still actively discussing the possibility with family, friends and a small group of political allies.

But even as he nears a decision on a campaign, his more immediate goal is to trumpet his policy wins while “aiming to stay above the political fray in 2023,” as NBC’s Mike Memoli writes this morning.

“The president will be joined in Kentucky by Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL (R-Ky.) and other regional leaders from both parties Wednesday to announce a major project funded by the new infrastructure law. The stop, and others like it this week featuring other administration officials across the country, will come a day after the new Republican-led House of Representatives takes power in Washington, kicking off a period of divided government as the 2024 presidential election campaign also begins to take shape.”

— AT THE SUPREME COURT: Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS “devoted his annual report on the state of the federal judiciary to threats to judges’ physical safety,” writes NYT’s Adam Liptak. (To the disappointment of some court-watchers, the report didn’t include “an update on the investigation announced in May into the leak of a draft opinion eliminating the constitutional right to abortion.”)

— AT THE CAPITOL: We’re just two days away from Congress officially switching hands, and the drama on Capitol Hill is hitting a crescendo. USA Today’s Ken Tran has a quick look at the new Congress’ first week, including KEVIN McCARTHY’s ongoing quest for 218 votes in his bid to become speaker; the first public movements on would-be GOP investigations into HUNTER BIDEN, the U.S.-Mexico border and more; and bipartisan enthusiasm for the new select committee on China.

New: At 4 p.m. today, McCarthy will host a call with the House GOP Conference to try to iron out a deal to get the gavel.

Former President Donald Trump and former first lady Melania Trump arrive in the dining room for a New Years Eve party at Mar-a-Lago, in Palm Beach, Fla., Saturday, Dec. 31, 2022.

Former President Donald Trump and Melania Trump | Lynne Sladky/AP Photo

— AT MAR-A-LAGO: Former President DONALD TRUMP rang in the new year with a few hundred Mar-a-Lago members. There was none of the A-list Hollywood glitz of past NYE celebrations at the club, reports the Palm Beach Post’s Antonio Fins: “[T]his year, the most notable, high-profile figures … were from the former president's political orbit, including pollster DICK MORRIS, legal advisor RUDY GIULIANI and pillow maker MIKE LINDELL.” (Of the three eldest Trump children, ERIC attended, while IVANKA and DON JR. did not.)

Trump chatted with the media a bit about the economy, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and inflation as he entered the ballroom, but “notably sidestepped questions about Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS’ call for an investigation of COVID vaccines, a key legacy of Trump's single term in the White House, and whether he supported a national abortion ban.”

Worth reading this morning: AP’s Jill Colvin has a wide-angle look at Trump’s headwinds in his third run for the White House, which one GOP operative compared to the movie “Failure to Launch.”

BOB VANDER PLAATS, a prominent Iowa social conservative: “In a lot of ways, it kind of feels like it’s the announcement that didn’t even happen or doesn’t feel like it happened because there was no immediate buzz. ... I don’t hear from people on the ground, ‘I can’t wait for Trump to run.’”

— IN UKRAINE/RUSSIA: As Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s invasion of Ukraine nears the one-year mark, his annual New Year’s Eve address “was notably different from previous years, a reflection of the new path the country has taken since Russia invaded Ukraine this February,” WaPo’s David Stern and Francesca Ebel write. The typical celebratory remarks were much more “combative and nationalistic” in tone. As the speech aired, more missiles rained down on Ukraine, including in Kyiv.

— ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA: “N. Korea’s Kim vows ‘exponential’ increase in nuclear arsenal in new year,” by WaPo’s Michelle Ye Hee Lee

— IN OUTER SPACE: “‘We better watch out’: NASA boss sounds alarm on Chinese moon ambitions,” by Bryan Bender

Happy New Year! Thanks for reading Playbook. How did you ring in 2023? Drop us a line: Rachael BadeEugene DanielsRyan Lizza.

 

A message from Binance:

It’s been a tough year for crypto. After unprecedented fraud and mismanagement, industry confidence has been shaken. As the world’s largest crypto exchange, Binance believes greater transparency is critical. At Binance, user assets are backed 1:1 and our capital structure is debt-free, and we are eager to work with regulators to help bring order to the markets. Learn more about our commitment to moving forward in Politico this week.

 

SUNDAY BEST …

— House Majority Leader STENY HOYER on whether McCarthy will become speaker, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “I would be surprised if he doesn’t. … If he gets 218 votes, he has the ability to put together the votes to be the leader of the party and he will then be tested as to whether or not he can lead.”

On his working relationship with Speaker NANCY PELOSI: “[S]he’s probably the most effective political leader that I’ve worked with over the years. I was obviously disappointed when I was running for majority leader and she supported my opponent — and pretty strongly so, as you recall. But of course, I won pretty handily as you recall.”

— Rep. KEVIN BRADY (R-Texas) on Rep.-elect GEORGE SANTOS’ (R-N.Y.) fabricated background, on “Fox News Sunday”: “He's certainly going to have to consider resigning. He's got really two choices. I don’t know this young man, he doesn’t need my advice, surely, but: One, he can try to politically ride it out — we’ve seen that happen in Washington, D.C. Or he can take the tougher choice, which is, I think, look, own every lie that he’s made, apologize to everyone and anyone for as long as it takes.”

— Sen. AMY KLOBUCHAR (D-Minn.) on tech companies’ influence over regulatory legislation, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “At some point, when they can't control their own platforms while they're making billions of dollars from the American people, and over … two-thirds of Americans say it’s hurting our democracy — come on, Congress. Stop hiding behind this and get something done.”

— Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.) on China’s potential influence on social media, on “Meet the Press”: “They seem to be perfecting this model of techno-totalitarian control. … They’re using it to shut down the protests that we’re seeing in China right now. And ultimately, it’s my belief that that’s a model that will not stay in China.”

— Rep. ADAM KINZINGER (R-Ill.) on whether he would run for president in 2024, on “State of the Union”: “My intention is not to run in 2024. But it would be fun. It would be fun to stand on a stage with Donald Trump and actually tell the truth, because when he’s on a stage, it’s nothing but lies that come out.”

— Maryland Gov.-elect WES MOORE on whether he thinks the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan should be investigated by Congress, on “State of the Union”: “I do not think that the people of the state of Maryland want the Republican Party to spend their time or want Congress spending their time talking about the drawdown in Afghanistan. They want them focusing on the issues that are facing them right now.”

Brazil