Thursday, April 19, 2018

Notations On Our World (Special Edition): On the National WalkOut Tomorrow along w/A Series of Gunfortunate Events



Trevor Noah, once again, reflected upon a current event--this about the pending school walkout tomorrow to protest gun violence.    The Principal of our Hometown High School sent out guidance to the Aliso Niguel Community that is worth noting as it is critical to note that the challenge continues to persist due to the inaction by the Congress of the United States:





Dear Wolverine Families, 
As you may be aware, some national organizers are again calling for a student walkout – during school hours tomorrowFriday, April 20th.  This walkout is reportedly intended to call attention to school violence and issues of gun control.  According to the information we have, students are first being asked to leave class at approximately 10:00 for thirteen minutes (in memory of the 13 students who died in the Columbine High School shooting in 1999), and then to also leave campus for the remainder of the day and attend various community protest events.  We ask for your support in reminding students that they should NOT ever leave campus without first following proper attendance callout procedures.  Our district communications office in March previously sent all CUSD families and staff a letter outlining important information and key points, which will again serve as the foundation for what we will do at ANHS if we have students who choose to participate in this walkout.
While we deeply value each and every one of our student's voices, we are not sponsoring nor endorsing participation in this or any demonstration. However, our student's safety will always be our highest priority and we have a plan to ensure we are doing everything we can to keep our students safe in the event they choose to walk out. Below you will find guidelines that we will be following at ANHS, many of which were outlined in the previous communication from me and our district office.
  • We will direct any students who choose to walk out to a supervised location on campus; students should NOT leave campus for any reason.
  • Students do who leave campus without first following proper attendance callout procedures will be marked truant and subject to disciplinary consequences.
  • If a student chooses to walk out of class they will not be prohibited or blocked from doing so in any way.
  • Students will not be forced or pressured to participate in the walkout by any teacher or school employee.
  • We ask that all students, regardless of whether they choose to participate or not, are respectful of each other's choices and views and continue to help make ANHS a safe, supportive, and accepting community for all students.
As always, thank you for your support of our students and school. 
Sincerely,
Deni Christensen - Principal

Excerpt from previous District Communications sent in March:
While CUSD supports the rights of our students to express their beliefs under the state and federal First Amendment rights, as a District we are not sponsoring or advocating any participation in demonstrations. Supporting the remarks by the California State PTA, “care must be taken to ensure that orderly operation of the school is not disrupted and the physical safety of students is not threatened.” We have all agreed that our focus will remain on instruction and learning and to keep students safe in classrooms.  
If students walk out of their classrooms or the school, we will supervise and will work with our campuses to strongly encourage that these activities take place in the safest locations possible. Because this is a highly publicized known day to strangers, we continue to reinforce that the safest place to be is in the classroom. ​We do not encourage students to congregate in open areas putting themselves at risk and we expect our students to follow the guidance of our principals and staff to ensure safety. In accordance with state law, we will not discipline students who choose to assemble, provided they adhere to District and school guidelines including, but not limited to:
 
  • All activities must be peaceful and respectful.
  • At no time may students leave the campus.
  • Additionally, a student may be marked truant if they do not return to the classroom or if they leave the campus. 

We continue to encourage parents to have a conversation with their students and to make their own expectations clear about participating in student demonstrations and these non-school sponsored activities. Principals and school staff who have been approached by students should continue to talk with them about this matter and maintain open lines of communication with parents.

To further support a safe campus environment, outside groups, parents/guardians, and other individuals who do not have official school business will not be allowed on campus to participate in the walkouts. As part of our normal operations, anyone visiting school campuses for school-related matters or for volunteer work must check in with the front office.  
We are committed to the safety of all of our students and desire to assure staff, families, and students that our site staff will work tirelessly to create a positive, supportive learning environment on all of our campuses in the event of any student demonstrations.

Our priority is student learning and safety. What we expect this month from our students will ensure that our students understand future expectations, as many other walkouts are being planned nationally. 



Notations From the Grid (Weekly Edition): On the Latest Out of the UK

Martin Rowson, 17 April 2018
The #Brexit Story in the UK has dissipated for the moment as another controversy has been taking over the UK with how deportations have begun for descendants of the Caribbean Immigrants who came to the UK.   This tweet reminded us of some of the work of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement here in the United States.   The Guardian of London captured it brilliantly



Notations On Our World (Special Thursday Edition): Official opening of Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting at Bu...


The Commonwealth Head of Government Meetings has opened in London as the UK will assume the leadership--and as the Queen has nominated her principal heir, Prince Charles, to succeed her as Head of the Commonwealth.   What particularly caught our attention was the thoughts shared by a Young Man From Sierra Leon and a Lady from India.

Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Notations On Our World (Weekly Edition): On This #TaxDay2018 Here in the US

The Team at the Institute for Policy Studies created this "snapshot" on where Tax Receipts Were spent in the US--Americans spent 29 days working to get Pentagon Contractors Paid:

taxes-tax-day-spending

Monday, April 16, 2018

Notations On Our World (Special Weekly Edition): Catching Up w/Our Editor.....

We had an opportunity to catch up with our Editor over the W-End as he was busy at a training at Camp San Luis Obispo--known as the original home of the California National Guard.    He was gracious enough to share these images he captured from a memorial grove dedicated to the fallen heroes of the California National Guard who died during Operation Iraqi Freedom


As He explained it, the first image is where the groove is that is centered with a retired F4 Fighter Jet from the California National Guard.   He also captured one of the images (as he told us he unfortunately ran out of battery!!)

We salute all the fallen and their families as we remember them in our thoughts & prayers.



Friday, April 13, 2018

Notations On Our World (Special Friday Edition): As We Prepare To Go Dark-#DreamStillLives



On behalf of all of us at the Daily Outsider, we wish to express our appreciation to the great Stevie Wonder for this beautiful 5 minutes as we say that the Dream Still Lives.   Our mission is to help to do whatever we can to sustain this Dream--and that we shall!!!

We will be dark in our properties over the ensuing days as we hope all enjoy our Broadcast Partners and our Twitter Channel Updates. 



Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Notations On Our World (Special Edition): @SpeakerRyan Will not Seek Re-Election

This has just been confirmed by multiple News Sources (Including NBC News Below)  as the US Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan, Will not seek Re-Election which can be quite a game changer: 


Paul Ryan will not seek re-election, NBC News confirms
House Speaker Paul Ryan will not seek re-election, NBC News confirms. NBC’s Garrett Haake and Kasie Hunt report on how the House Speaker’s decision to not seek re-election will affect the Republican Party in Congress.
Read More

(Update:  The House Speaker just concluded a Press Conference within the past hour noting his justification citing his Family and touting his achievements.    One of the key questions was on the Trillion Dollar Deficits and how he noted his attempts at Entitlement Reform.     The comments from Professor Turley Was quite interesting in this regard as we await the interesting times before us as he (and we) ..."
.remain(s)  astonished that 
depression-era-unemployment-line
there was not more of an uproar over the massive budget just passed after lifting debt ceilings by both parties.  Now, the Congressional Budget Office is projecting that the combination of the new tax bill and our massive budget will push the national debt to nearly the same size as gross domestic product by 2028.  That is with an economic growth rate of 3.3 percent this year.

Monday, April 9, 2018

Notations On Our World (Weekly Edition): On the Week That Was...

It has been quite a weekend as President Trump spoke up for Scott Pruitt,  Trump Officials went on The US Public Affairs shows to defend the President's Tariff plans and the President called out Putin by name in the aftermath of the Horrific Chemical Attack on Syria--and this is as the President went after the Justice Department and the FBI.

Facebook, in the meantime, is in the cross hairs in the aftermath of the Cambridge Analytica fiasco--This reporting last week from the Washington Post was troubling as all who use it may have been compromised--some 2 Billion Users.   The Top Two Facebook Executives made the media rounds to note how "sorry" they were.   Mark Zuckerberg, the Facebook Founder, Chair and CEO, is due to appears before Congress on April 10. Our team maintains a presence on Facebook as we feature periodic updates on our curation of the World's On-going Media--and will continue to do so.   

It is bound to be interesting as we feature a sampling of the challenging week that was: 







Post: Two EPA Officials and A White House Official Say Pruitt Personally Instructed Staff To Approve Controversial Raises

EPA administrator Scott Pruitt was adamant in his disastrous interview with Fox's Ed Henry that he was unaware of the controversial raises given to two aides and that he attempted to find out which officials were responsible.  The interview not only did not sit well many viewers, it clearly did not sit well with people at the EPA and the White House. The Washington Post is reporting that he personally instructed agency staff to approve raises for two top aides who had previously served under him in Oklahoma, The Post reports that two EPA officials and a White house official confirmed that Pruitt not only knew of the raises but instructed underlings to approve them.
What is also critical is to be aware of what is going on in our Home State of California.   California has been at the forefront of the so-called "resistance" to the Trump Administration including the enactment of the Sanctuary Cities Law that has prompted lawsuits and this on what the State has done to issue Drivers' Licenses: 



California DMV Surpasses One Million Driver’s Licenses For Undocumented Individuals

by jonathanturley
download-1California reached a milestone recently in its immigration laws: the state has now given over one million illegal or undocumented immigrants driver's licenses.  Passed in 2013 by sponsor Luis Alejo, Assembly Bill 60  required the California Department of Motor Vehicles to issue driver's licenses to undocumented immigrants as long as they can prove their identity and residence within the state. As of March 31st, some 1,001,000 undocumented immigrants have received licenses.  The state has reached this goal at a time when it is on a collision course with the Trump Administration on immigration enforcement as well as some of its own cities.  The result is rising rhetoric on both sides and an inevitable court fight.


In the meantime, the President has apparently made decisions to initiate cuts in spite of the Budget having been passed by Congress:  


  GovExec Today

    
April 5, 2018

Trump Looks to Slash Agency Budget Increases He Just Signed Into Law // Eric Katz

President could face lawsuit if he withholds funds without congressional approval. 


As our team concluded our assessment for the week, what was interesting was this take by Corey Robin as he talked about how it appears that the Tax Cuts (that has been the driving force behind the GOP) seems to losing its' luster:


Vote on the Reagan Tax Cuts of 1981 : House: 321-107 (131 of those 321 yes votes are Democrats; one Republican votes no) ; Senate: 89-11 (37 of those 89 yes votes are Democrats; one Republican votes no) 

Vote on the Bush Tax Cuts of 2001:  House: 240-154 (28 of those 240 yes votes are Democrats; no Republican votes no); Senate: 58-33 (12 of those 58 yes votes are Democrats; two Republicans vote no)

Vote on the Trump Tax Cuts of 2017: House: 227-205 (none of those 227 yes votes are Democrats; 13 Republicans vote no); Senate: 51-48 (none of those 51 yes votes are Democrats; 1 Republican votes no) 

Interesting Times....

Sunday, April 8, 2018

Notations From the Grid (W-End Edition): On The State of the Mid-Terms in the United States

The Mid-Term Elections in the United States have begun in earnest.  Professor Larry Sabato and his team at the University of Virginia issued their latest guidance on the elections late last week which we have noted here for reference.    The Crystal Ball team notes how the Democrats will continue to have a challenge in the US Senate--we will continue to assess it as well:

NOTES ON THE STATE OF POLITICS
Mirror images of vulnerability; two statewide Democrats get upgrades; electoral consequences from #MeToo
By Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley
Sabato's Crystal Ball

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

-- The partisan structure of the races for governorships and Senate seats are now exact mirror opposites.
-- Sen. Angus King (I-ME) and Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) get ratings upgrades.
-- Rep. Elizabeth Esty’s (D, CT-5) retirement gives Republicans an upset opportunity and is another example of how #MeToo is contributing to a high number of open House seats this cycle.

Table 1: Crystal Ball Senate and gubernatorial ratings changes

Mirror images of partisan vulnerability in Senate and gubernatorial races

With Mississippi now hosting two Senate races this year, 2018’s Senate and gubernatorial races have achieved something of a mirror-image symmetry.
On the Senate front, Democrats are defending 26 seats (including two independents who caucus with Democrats from Maine and Vermont) while the Republicans, even with the addition of a special election in Mississippi, are still only defending nine.
In the gubernatorial races, it is the Republicans defending 26 seats while the Democrats are defending just nine. There is one other governorship on the ballot not included here -- Alaska -- but an independent, Bill Walker, is seeking reelection. He defeated a Republican incumbent in 2014 and has a Democratic running mate, but Walker himself is not a Democrat, and because there isn’t a “caucus” of governors the way there is in the House and the Senate, Walker effectively doesn’t have to pick a party the way that independents in Congress do.
This imbalance, which disadvantages Democrats in the Senate and Republicans in the gubernatorial races, could lead to an election where Democrats make significant gains in governorships but struggle to make up any net ground in the Senate, where Republicans hold a razor-thin 51-49 majority.
In the Senate, Democrats do have some Republican targets. Both Arizona, an open seat, and Nevada, where Sen. Dean Heller (R) is seeking reelection, are 50-50 races. Heller benefited recently from President Donald Trump pushing perennial Republican candidate Danny Tarkanian to seek an open House seat. Tarkanian was previously challenging Heller for the Senate nomination and could have won. Additional contests in Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas could provide Democrats with other pickup opportunities, though all are relative long shots. In the Volunteer State, Sen. Bob Corker’s (R) retirement has set up a likely battle between Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R, TN-7) and former Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) in the general. In the Lone Star State, Sen. Ted Cruz (R) faces Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D, TX-16), who just announced an impressive $6.7 million fundraising haul in the first quarter of 2018. Lastly, the resignation of Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) due to health problems has precipitated a special election this November that could become very interesting because of the candidates and the electoral format. Cochran’s appointed replacement is soon-to-be Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), and she will compete in a blanket primary on Election Day against candidates from both parties, with a runoff on Nov. 27 -- the Tuesday after Thanksgiving -- likely to follow. State Sen. Chris McDaniel (R), who nearly beat Cochran in a Senate primary runoff in 2014, is running against Hyde-Smith, as are at least two prominent Democrats: Mike Espy (D), a former congressman and U.S. agriculture secretary, and Tupelo Mayor Jason Shelton (D). The Crystal Ball rates the three races in Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas as Likely Republican.
Democrats, meanwhile, are defending four Toss-up races involving Sens. Bill Nelson (D-FL), Joe Donnelly (D-IN), Claire McCaskill (D-MO), and Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND). Nelson’s inclusion in the Toss-up category is predicated on Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL) challenging him, and Scott is widely expected to enter the race on Monday (April 9). The typical midterm trends that work in favor of the non-presidential party benefit all of these incumbents, but one or more could easily lose even in a bad environment for Republicans. McCaskill has appeared to be the most vulnerable Senate Democrat for much of the cycle, but likely Republican nominee Josh Hawley, the state attorney general, has had to deal with the fallout surrounding the indictment of Gov. Eric Greitens (R-MO) over accusations the governor tried to blackmail a mistress. It’s an ugly story from which Hawley can only keep so much distance because he’s the state’s top law enforcement official. To be clear though, McCaskill remains at best 50-50 to win. Donnelly awaits the winner of a three-way GOP primary that is as of now impossible to handicap, while Heitkamp will face Rep. Kevin Cramer (R, ND-AL).
Despite polling from SurveyMonkey showing both Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) lagging behind generic Republican opponents, we still perceive both as narrow favorites in states that aren’t quite as Republican as Trump’s landslide victories in each made them seem. The identities of their eventual general election opponents remain up in the air, and Republicans are worried that disgraced former coal baron Don Blankenship (R) might actually win the Mountain State’s GOP nomination over state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) or Rep. Evan Jenkins (R, WV-3). Blankenship, the former CEO of Massey Energy, served prison time for conspiring to violate mine federal mining safety standards in connection with a mining disaster that killed 29 in 2010. Then again, Democrats who might prefer Manchin to face Blankenship should be careful what they wish for -- given West Virginia’s Republican turn and the state’s complicated relationship with its one-time signature industry (coal), we hesitate to completely rule out anything there.
Many Republicans seem to regard Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) as one of the party’s top Senate targets, more appealing even than Tester or Manchin according to some even though Wisconsin is a 50-50 state politically. Immense outside spending by conservative groups confirms the chatter. That said, we still see Baldwin as a favorite. For one thing, it’s not clear that whichever Republican emerges from an August primary will be a top-tier candidate. Any of Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson (R), state Sen. Leah Vukmir (R), or businessman Eric Hovde (R), the 2012 GOP Senate primary runner-up who is still mulling a run, could give Baldwin a real race, but all three are unproven at the statewide level. Also, Wisconsin Republicans have been blindsided by two lopsided recent losses: The party lost a state Senate special election in a red district in January and a technically nonpartisan statewide Supreme Court race on Tuesday, both by double digits. Those results are not necessarily predictive of the future, but one also would not look at those results and conclude they suggest the state’s incumbent Democratic senator is unusually threatened -- remember, non-presidential party Senate incumbents have an excellent record of winning reelection in midterm years. Incumbent Gov. Scott Walker (R), who is seeking a third term, took to Twitter to sound the alarm bell after both losses. Baldwin and Walker are almost exact opposites politically, and in a polarized state there may not be many ticket-splitters. We have both incumbents in the leans category, but given the likely Democratic lean of the midterm environment, Walker may be in more trouble than Baldwin. But Walker, like Baldwin, benefits from an unproven field of candidates from the opposing party.
Elsewhere, some recent polling has shown Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) leading, although he must be on guard in a state that seems to be trending to Republicans. Other Democrats not mentioned here are in better shape, as shown by our ratings in Map 1.

Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings

On the gubernatorial front, Democrats seem better than 50-50 to win Republican-held seats in Illinois, Maine, and New Mexico. The GOP’s best targets are Alaska, where independent Bill Walker is unpopular, and open seats Democrats are defending in Colorado, Connecticut, and Minnesota, particularly if and when former Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) decides to try for a third, nonconsecutive term in the Gopher State (he appears likely to run). Democrats have several other prime targets, which is natural given both the environment and the immense amount of defense Republicans need to play on this map.
We’ve previously said that the best way to judge 2018’s gubernatorial races is by which party wins a majority of five big states: Florida, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Republicans currently hold all but Pennsylvania.
Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) is an underdog against Democratic nominee J.B. Pritzker in Illinois. Florida and Michigan are open-seat Toss-ups, and Ohio Leans Republican but should feature a competitive race in the fall. Meanwhile, Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA) seems like an increasingly good bet for reelection, as we explain in our next section.

Map 2: Crystal Ball gubernatorial ratings

Ratings changes: Maine Senate and Pennsylvania governor

With the expiration of candidate filing deadlines for statewide races in Maine (March 15) and Pennsylvania (March 6),[1] we now know what the candidate fields look like in the senatorial and gubernatorial contests in those states. Given the developments in the U.S. Senate race in Maine and the gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania, the Crystal Ball is shifting the ratings in each of these contests in the Democrats’ direction, to the benefit of Sen. Angus King (I-ME) -- he caucuses with Senate Democrats -- and Gov. Tom Wolf (D-PA). The Maine Senate race moves from Likely Independent/Democratic to Safe Independent/Democratic and the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race moves from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic.
In the Pine Tree State’s Senate contest, the political future of the LePages -- Gov. Paul LePage (R-ME) and his wife, Ann -- had been the major question mark at the start of the 2018 cycle. As a twice-elected statewide official popular with the GOP base, Republicans viewed Gov. LePage as their best bet to make the race against King competitive, though LePage’s wife also earned mention as a possible candidate. In May 2017, Gov. LePage’s top political consultant announced that the governor would not seek the Senate seat. With one LePage out, then-White House chief strategist Steve Bannon reportedly turned to Ann LePage, hoping that she would throw her hat into the race. Meanwhile, it seemed that Gov. LePage had not completely ruled out a Senate bid, and in December 2017 it came out that President Donald Trump was pushing Gov. LePage to reconsider his earlier decision.
Ultimately, though, the GOP got neither LePage. Instead, the Republican field consists of Libertarian-minded state Sen. Eric Brakey and financial planner Max Linn. As of Dec. 31, 2017, Brakey had just $85,000 cash-on-hand, and there was no info for Linn. Meanwhile, the incumbent King had about $2 million in his campaign war chest. A potential problem for King would have been a serious Democratic contender, who might have threatened Democratic backing for the ostensibly independent incumbent. However, the lone Democrat in the race is Zak Ringelstein, whose campaign only had about $62,000 in the bank at the end of 2017. Ringelstein has an interesting profile -- he was named to Forbes’ 30 Under 30 for education in 2015 -- but he does not appear to have the resources to seriously threaten King. Moreover, it seems that the incumbent is quite popular, which may have discouraged the LePages from running: According to Morning Consult’s most recent data on approval and disapproval, King ranked as the ninth-best senator in approval, with 59% of Mainers approving of his performance. Given these various data points and the lack of a first-tier Republican challenger to King, a Safe Independent/Democratic rating is appropriate.
In the Keystone State, Gov. Wolf had appeared to be potentially vulnerable. About one year into his governorship (February 2016), the Franklin & Marshall College Poll found that only 31% of Pennsylvanians thought Wolf was doing an excellent or good job. Since then, however, his numbers have improved, and the most recent poll from late March found 43% of respondents believed Wolf was doing an excellent or good job. Morning Consult’s most recent data showed Wolf with a net positive approval rating (+6). While Wolf’s numbers are not notably strong, they are not notably weak, either. In what is shaping up to be a favorable electoral environment for Democrats, one could reasonably argue that Wolf only needs to be in decent standing with the electorate to have a solid chance at reelection.
As for the GOP, Republicans had hoped that a first-tier candidate like Rep. Mike Kelly (R, PA-16)[2] would enter the race to challenge Wolf. However, Kelly opted against a gubernatorial run. With filings finalized, the two main Republican contenders are state Sen. Scott Wagner and businessman Paul Mango. Wagner is probably the frontrunner, though there has been only limited polling. Both Republicans are throwing millions of dollars into the race: Together, they spent $5.4 million in the first quarter of 2018, and in terms of cash on hand, Wagner had $6.2 million and Mango $3.3 million as of March 26. However, a lot of the GOP spending has been on primary attack ads defining the opposition as insufficiently conservative. For example, Mango recently attacked Wagner on abortion, while Wagner claims Mango was a proponent of Obamacare. As the temperature of the Republican primary rises, Wolf just announced that he ended the first quarter of 2018 with $14.7 million cash-on-hand, and he has no opponent in the May 15 primary. Moreover, should Wolf feel threatened by his eventual opponent’s war chest, he could dip into his own pocket. After all, Wolf spent about $10 million out of his own bank account in his victorious 2014 campaign. In light of Wolf’s stronger position, we now rate the Pennsylvania gubernatorial contest as Likely Democratic. He joins Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) in that rating category.

#MeToo’s effect on 2018

Rep. Elizabeth Esty (D, CT-5) announced her retirement earlier this week after stories emerged of how she kept a former chief of staff around for months after a former aide had accused him of punching her, in addition to repeated harassment. Esty signed a nondisclosure agreement to protect the man’s reputation and even vouched for him as he got a new job.
Esty’s retirement brings the total of open House seats in November to 57, adding one more name to an increasingly long list of departing House members (we assessed the other 56 open seats in depth last week). After the Esty story broke last week, we changed our rating of her district from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic. We’re keeping that rating now that the seat is open, and we may downgrade Democratic chances further depending on how the race develops. Hillary Clinton won the seat by four points in 2016, and it probably will vote Republican in the state’s gubernatorial race this fall. If Clinton were in the White House, this would be a Toss-up, but the usual presidential party midterm drag works against Republicans here. Still, Republicans now have another open seat target.
Esty is just the latest of about a half-dozen members who have seen their careers ended by sexual harassment, either through direct allegations or through not addressing complaints against others more seriously.
In a year with an already-large amount of turnover, Capitol Hill’s -- and the nation’s -- reckoning with poor behavior is contributing to the exodus. And here’s the thing: We should probably expect the careers of more members to end this year because of what’s become known as #MeToo, the flood of credible allegations of bad behavior by people in power (mostly men) toward subordinates (mostly women). In what could be a very close national battle for the House, the openings forced by these sexual harassment allegations may play a role in determining the next majority.
The continuing fallout from #MeToo is what former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld might call a “known unknown” -- we know that future retirements prompted by these kinds of allegations might affect more House races this year, but which ones, and how many, are unknown.

Footnotes

1. As a part of its redistricting order, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court shifted the candidate filing deadline for Pennsylvania’s congressional districts to March 20, but the March 6 deadline for all other Pennsylvania offices remained the same.
2. Kelly’s current district under Pennsylvania’s old congressional map is PA-3, but he is running in the newly-drawn PA-16.


This is also as the Congressional Budget Office just came out with the Budget Deficit during the first year of President Trump's Administration:

 


Monthly Budget Review for March 2018

The federal budget deficit was $598 billion for the first half of fiscal year 2018, CBO estimates, $71 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year.