Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Notations On our World: On the Virtual Prowl @Davos #WEF20

As #WEF20 continues,  please note the following courtesy of the World Bank:

  A post-crisis low in 2019

By most measures, 2019 was the worst year for the global economy since the global financial crisis , with global growth reaching a post-crisis low of 2.4 percent.
Chart: Global Indicators in 2019
Source: CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis; Haver Analytics; World Bank.

Note: Trade measured as the average of exports and imports volumes. Manu. = manufacturing. PMI = Purchasing Managers’ Index. PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion in economic activity; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Last observation is 2019Q3 for GDP, October 2019 for industrial production and goods trade, and November 2019 for PMI.

  A tepid pickup in 2020

Chart: Global Growth
Source: World Bank.

Note: EMDEs = emerging market and developing economies. Shaded areas indicate forecasts. Data for 2019 are estimates. Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exchange rates.

  An evolving macro policy landscape

In response to subdued activity, macroeconomic policy became more stimulative last year. While monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, fiscal support is anticipated to fade this year.
Chart: Stance of global fiscal and monetary policy
Source: Bank for International Settlements; Consensus Economics; Haver Analytics; International Monetary Fund; World Bank.

Note: Shaded areas indicate forecasts. Data for 2019 are estimates. Aggregates calculated using nominal U.S. dollar GDP weights. Fiscal impulse is the negative change in general government cyclically adjusted primary balance. Policy rates are the December to December change. Sample includes 35 AEs and 77 EMDEs for fiscal impulse and 16 AEs and 21 EMDEs for policy rates. Policy rates for 2020 use the December 2019 Consensus Forecasts report for central bank policy rates. When these are unavailable, the change in short-term yields is used.

  A fragile rebound in EMDEs

The recovery will not be broad-based. Instead, it will mostly be driven by a pickup in a small number of large EMDEs emerging from deep recessions or sharp slowdowns.
Chart: Growth Outlook
Source: J.P. Morgan; World Bank.

Note: Green lines indicate 2000-19 simple averages. “Main drivers of pickup” includes the eight largest EMDEs that account for 90 percent of the acceleration in EMDE growth between 2019 and 2020 (Argentina, Brazil, India, Iran, Mexico, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey). Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exchange rates. Shaded areas indicate forecasts.

  Insufficient per capita growth to reduce poverty

Chart: Productivity growth and global poverty
Source: Penn World Table; The Conference Board; World Bank.

Note: Productivity is defined as output per worker. Sample includes 29 advanced economies and 74 EMDEs. Aggregate growth rates calculated using GDP weights at 2010 prices and market exchange rates. Poverty is defined as the extreme poor living at or below $1.90 per day, in 2011 PPP terms.

Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Notations From the Grid (Special Weekly Edition): As #Davos2020 Goes On...

As Davos Continues, Some #RandomThoughts on the First Day:

Monday, January 20, 2020

Notations From the Grid (Weekly Special Edition): #RandomThoughts on this #MLKDay2020

On this #MLKDay2020, we present the following #RandomThoughts : 

What to Learn From Martin Luther King Jr.’s Legacy of Peaceful Protest
Photo credit: Horace Cort/AP
Dr. King encouraged civil disobedience — he faced serious risks and caused tension by challenging the status quo.

Sunday, January 19, 2020

Notations From the Grid (Special Edition): As #Davos2020 Begins....

Friday, January 17, 2020

Notations On Our World (Special Friday Edition): On the Impeachment of President Trump

a group of people walking in a room: House Impeachment Managers, led by the House Clerk and the House Sergeant at Arms walk through National Statuary Hall to the Senate to present the articles of impeachment to the Secretary of the Senate.
The United States House of Representatives Impeachment Managers, Accompanied by the United States Senate Sergeant at Arms, deliver the Articles of Impeachment to the United States Senate 

Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA), the president pro tempore of the U.S. Senate, swears in Chief Justice of the United States  John Roberts to preside over the Senate impeachment trial of U.S. President Donald Trump in this frame grab from video shot in the Senate Chamber at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., January 16, 2020. REUTERS/U.S. Senate TV/Handout via Reuters
The United States Senate President Pro Tem, Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa, Adminsters the oath of Office to Chief Justice John Roberts who will preside over the Impeachment Trial as provided in the United States Constitution 

Thursday, January 16, 2020

Notations On Our World (Weekly Edition): #RandomThoughts On #Iran Watch Over the Past 24 hours...

Here is a sampling of all that went over the past 24 hours as Europe triggered the mechanism to get out of the JCPOA (The Iran Deal) , and the continued aftermath of the Ukraine Plane Crash continued--as meetings were due to be held in London later on today regarding the Ukraine Plane Crash: 

Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Notations On Our World (Weekly Edition): On #Iran


 Our team has been on the prowl  as We have  seen reports of protests continuing as there has been a major Security Presence yet again and one of our Media Partners we consult, Iran International, reports on elements of the popular Milita (known as the Basij) have attacked students protesting at Amir Kabir University in Tehran.   Clips that has been shown reflect how Security Forces have been dealing harshly with Protesters--there are reports of detainees throughout the country.

Our team has also been assessing the latest in regards to the aftermath of the shooting down of the Ukrainian Airline by the Missile Corp of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp.    The images above reflect visits that Officials have made to the Families--and from what we see, it has been stage-managed as meetings were held and the first active scenes in the aftermath of the crash were reported as the rescuers were frantically looking for survivors:  

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Commanders Visit with a Family 

The First Vice President Meets With the Family of one of the Victims 

Security Officials prevented families from having interviews and those families who were able to bury their dead were subject to immense controls by plain-clothers Security Officials.    It was also noted  Iran's Official Government Spokesman also noted that the President, Hassan Rouhani, had no indication of the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp in the shooting of the plane until Friday in spite of the claim by the Commander, Hajizadeh, that he had informed the high command.     It must also be noted that Mr. Rouhani Chairs the Supreme National Security Council.   Today, Rouhani urged a special court be set up as the Judiciary came out reporting that arrests were made after a number of days whereby he stayed silent as he was busy with meetings with the Syrian Prime Minister and tried to deflect criticism from his own efforts.   

In the meantime,  Government Propaganda Efforts are continuing including a clip published reminding University Students of how ISIS would have killed all Students if it was not for the Islamic Republic and How 25 Million People came out for the funeral of Qasem Sulmeinai:

A propaganda Clip On the Role of ISIS 

A Claim of 25 Million Participants in the Funeral of Sulemiani

Our team will continue to assess it on an on-going basis as we have also been assessing the floods in the East of the Country in the province of Sistan and Baluchestan as the entire province has been devastated with no action by the Government not withstanding claims of visits by Revolutionary Guard Commanders and the Government: 

 Our thoughts and prayers are with the people of Iran and the province of Sistan and Baluchestan at this time.

Sunday, January 12, 2020

Notations On Our World (Special Sunday Edition): On Iran

As we've gone to press, we have been assessing a number of key developments throughout the past ten days.  We have been assessing the aftermath of the Sulemaini assassination and the shooting of the Ukrainian Airline as we extend our heartfelt condolences to the families of the loved ones.

In the aftermath of the Sulemaini assassination,    Iran worked to take advantage of this to try and have the World forget the protests of November as it worked to elevate him by virtue of such postings on his pious views--and his acceptance of death.       The postings noted below were supposedly written by him before he left Syria for his final trip to Iraq: 

The elevation of him to the position of martyrdom as he embraced the Third Imam as Khomeini looked on was part of this propaganda Effort.   There were attempts made, though, to deflate the myth they tried to build up, too.   

Iran promised a response--and the Supreme Guide noted that they "slapped the United States" as Iran thereafter attacked US Bases.   There were reports that it Iran had already given advance notice and what ended up was a show for domestic consumption.   This was as President Trump initially threatened during this effort to bomb Cultural Sites which prompted the discourse below which subsequently forced President Trump to revise his thinking in this regard: 

Even though 1500 people lost their lives in November, nothing was done and  the Government dismissed the protesters as foreign-inspired agitators.    However, the Supreme Guide (Supreme Leader) of the Government, Ali Khameini, went to see the family of Sulemani  and thereafter other senior members of the ruling establishment went there as well:

As the Government in Tehran put on a nationwide show for Sulmeinai's Funeral, a sense of the true sense of what the ordinary faces of Iran was evident as it noted this slogan:  "Trump-Right on!!!"

The aftermath of the tragedy of the Ukrainian Airlines flight was quite profound.     Iranian Authorities first denied it and tried to deflect--until the National Command authority in Iran issued a statement admitting the shooting of the airline.   The Commander said they are responsible --yet again played the blame game which has been the strategy by  Iranian Authorities.   

The life stories of these innocent souls has been heart breaking to be witness to--all of them were at the prime of their lives and had their entire life in front of them.    What we found especially sickening was one of the mouth pieces of Iran's Supreme Guide, stating that now that The Revolutionary Guards had admitted their mistake, the World should not shed crocodile tears--We join all in telling him that as we grieve, we will make sure to stay on it.  80% of the passengers were going back to Canada--and later on today the Canadian Prime Minister is due to visit Edmonton where 31 of the victims called home.    The mother and daughter in this picture perished:

As we went to press with this special edition of Notations, we were seeing reports of protests throughout Iran.    Protests have sprung up yet again in Iran targeting the Supreme Guide demanding his resignation--one of the leading celebrities that joined the protests was the Award-Winning Director Jafar Panahi at Amir Kabir University along with Tehran University--This image of the women standing up to Security Forces was telling:  

 Leading Iranian Papers have been noting how the Government had lied and how whatever credibility the Islamic Republic was destroyed--and how the people have arisen.    There have been resignations and threats of resignation by members of Parliament as well in light of the profound lies at hand.    

President Trump released a series of Tweets in Farsi expressing support and noting to the authorities in Iran that the World was watching.   We were also seeing reports that the Emir of Qatar was due to arrive in Tehran later on today--this is as Javad Zarif had gone on to Oman for the funeral of Sultan Qaboos who had just passed away.    

Profound challenging times.....