Tuesday, May 28, 2024

On Our "Virtual Route 66" (Final Month-End Edition): On Our World

Yesterday was Memorial Day 2024 here in the United States.   Our team chose the image from Our home, Orange County, as a newly formed National Guard contingent marched in Santa Ana early in the 1900's. 

 It has been quite a year.   Iran's President died in a helicopter crash.  China led a punishment exercise in Taiwan as Russia continued its war on Ukraine.   The UK Will go to the polls on July 4.   As we also went to press, India was finalizing its elections.   Former President Trump's trial in New York was drawing to a close as the campaign season was in full swing, with polls showing former President Trump ahead of President Biden.

Our team pulled together a snapshot courtesy of the team at the Guardian, the Financial Times, Politico, Heather Cox Richardson, the Financial Times and the New York Times, and the Visual Capitalist as we look forward to the continued privilege of serving:

Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, soaked in rain, stands at a lecturn as he delivers a speech to announce July 4 as the date of the UK's next general election.
25/05/2024

As the UK prepares to hit the polls – how do we paint a bigger picture of elections?

Katharine Viner, editor-in-chiefKatharine Viner, editor-in-chief
 

Wednesday started as a fairly ordinary day in the UK. The big headlines were a drop in inflation and the ongoing inquiry into the Post Office scandal. Then, suddenly, Westminster’s rumour mill went into overdrive. Was prime minister Rishi Sunak suddenly going to call a general election? At 4pm, the Guardian’s Pippa Crerar and Rowena Mason were the first to confirm the rumours: an election is coming on 4 July. Britain could be about to say goodbye to 14 years of Conservative rule.

Elections are exciting things to cover and, as you’d expect, we’ll be reporting on every twist and turn of the campaign and keeping track of the polls, the results … and the gaffes. We’ll be covering the election in many different ways: from Andrew Sparrow’s essential live blog to our Politics Weekly podcast, new editions of video series Anywhere But Westminster, John Crace and Marina Hyde on the campaign trail to crucial data analysis and commentary. And launching on Monday 3 June is our late afternoon Election Edition newsletter, which you can sign up for here.

But, as we know, elections have real consequences. They matter. That’s why our mission for this and all the other huge votes taking place this year is to cover not just the odds, but the stakes.

For the UK vote we’ll focus a great deal of our attention on the ground across the country, listening to a diverse range of voters (and non-voters) about their concerns, as well as looking at how the last 14 years has shaped their lives. We’ll use the six weeks before the vote spending sustained periods of time in a handful of places across the nation. We want to find out what people are really thinking and why.

This has been our approach for some time. By listening to people and understanding their lives, really being curious about what they’re telling us and not assuming we already know, the big electoral “shocks” of the last decade came as less of a surprise. In 2016, Gary Younge spent a month in Muncie, Indiana, an ordinary middle American town. The sense of deep dissatisfaction Gary observed had gone largely unnoticed in Washington DC, and it was a clear portent of the Trump victory. As he wisely wrote afterwards, by going to places like Muncie “you’ll hear things that have nothing to do with the elections and everything to do with politics.”

We heard similar in John Harris and John Domokos’s Anywhere but Westminster films in the run-up to Brexit. Then, in 2019, when a hung UK parliament seemed a possibility, the voters we spoke to in our People and power series seemed to be telling us very clearly that Boris Johnson’s Conservatives were about to make huge headway in Labour’s heartlands.

So, we won’t just be poll-watching. But if – and it’s a big if – the polls are correct and Labour are headed for government, a win for Keir Starmer’s party could offer a moment of hope for progressives around the world against a headwind of far-right politics.

On 6-9 June, voters in the EU will elect a new European Parliament. Far-right and hardline conservatives are expected to poll very highly in at least 18 of the 27 member states. This, as Europe correspondent Jon Henley wrote earlier this month, could dramatically boost the profile of those parties domestically and threaten environmental legislation in Europe.

Then there’s the Trump-shaped elephant in the room. Our team in the US has spent the year so far doing important work about what a potential second Trump presidency could mean for the environment, healthcare, immigration and much much more.

India is also midway through an epic, and critical, election, where nationalist leader Narendra Modi is expected to win a third term when the results are finally confirmed in early June.

We’re excited to see what happens next in Britain — I can’t have been the only person to wake up with a spring in my step on Thursday morning. But wherever elections are taking place it’s crucial that we tell the human stories about how people really feel about where they live and how they are governed, and to interrogate the impact of decisions made by the victors once they’ve put their rosettes away. We have an unrivalled political team, led by political editor Pippa Crerar, to help us do that. But for now, it’s time to hit the road.

My picks

Residents of Vovchansk and nearby villages arrive at an evacuation point.

In a pair of superb dispatches from Kharkiv in Ukraine, the Guardian’s central and eastern Europe correspondent Shaun Walker wrote about fraught attempts to evacuate people from towns near the frontline and spoke to those attempting to maintain some kind of ordinary life while under constant Russian attack. As a local theatre director told him: “The closeness of death every day clarifies your perception and pulls away the things that aren’t meaningful.”

As Israeli forces advanced in Rafah, Gaza, Lorenzo Tondo reported on how members of the security forces are allegedly colluding with far-right activists and settlers blocking aid into Gaza by tipping them off to the location of the vehicles delivering the vital supplies. Jerusalem correspondent Bethan McKernan covered the ICC seeking arrest warrants for senior Hamas and Israeli officials, including Benjamin Netanyahu.

In her latest in a series of investigative pieces about British artist Damien Hirst, Maeve McClenaghan revealed that at least 1,000 paintings in his The Currency series were painted years later than claimed. The latest investigation raises further questions about Hirst’s dating techniques and follows her earlier much-read revelation that several of his well-known formaldehyde sculptures dated by his company to the 1990s were actually made in 2017.

In the 1970s and 80s more than 30,000 people in the UK were infected with HIV and hepatitis C after being given contaminated blood products. For decades, the victims and their families have been campaigning for justice. Earlier this week they finally learned how the government plans to compensate them. The final report, which ran to more than 2,500 pages, was pored over by Haroon Siddique and Rachel Hall who explored a cover-up that has taken 50 years to be fully exposed.

Guardian Australia’s transport reporter Elias Visontay and south-east Asia correspondent Rebecca Ratcliffe spoke with passengers about the moment Singapore Airlines flight SQ321 hit severe turbulence, leaving one British man dead and more than 70 injured.

A majority of Americans believe the US economy is in recession, despite official figures to the contrary. Lauren Aratani explored the troubling gap between the realities versus perceptions of the American economy and how it could impact Biden’s re-election bid.

Saturday magazine’s latest remarkable photography special gave us the 38 pictures that shifted how women are seen in the world (for better or worse). Author Anne Enright introduced the collection: “The lens has not lost its power to claim and possess. This is especially true when it is pointed at a woman. Even when the camera is in her control.” Truly sensational and utterly enjoyable.

Early on Sunday morning in Riyadh, Ukrainian Oleksandr Usyk defeated the UK’s Tyson Fury to become boxing’s unified world heavyweight champion. After the fight, Jonathan Liew pondered the morals of all involved (including viewers like himself).

Would you leave a baby in a pram outside a shop and not worry about it? Many Danes would. In the latest in our Euro visions series, Zoe Williams explored how Denmark became the most trusting country in the world – and how that fact has boosted their economy. An inspiration.

One more thing … I was delighted that one of my favourite contemporary European writers, Jenny Erpenbeck, won the International Booker prize this week for her latest book, Kairos. Erpenbeck grew up in East Germany and her novels evoke a world in which reunification isn’t an unequivocally happy ending — perhaps one of the reasons she is more successful in the Anglosphere (via her translator Michael Hofmann, who also won the prize) than at home in Germany, a theme explored by Lisa Allardice in her terrific interview. I loved meeting Erpenbeck in Berlin a few years ago. All her novels are wonderful, but I started with Go, Went, Gone and haven’t looked back.

BIG GOP REDISTRICTING WIN — “Supreme Court upholds Nancy Mace’s congressional district that ‘exiled’ 30,000 Black voters,” by The Post and Courier’s Caitlin Byrd: “The practical impact is that the upcoming 2024 election will be held in a district that critics said was intentionally redrawn to reduce the number of Black Democratic-leaning voters to make it more likely that Republican candidates would win.”

THORNS FROM THE ROSE CITY — “The White House to the left: We told you so on crime,” by Adam Cancryn, Adam Wren and Jonathan Lemire: “The defeat of a liberal Portland prosecutor at the hands of a tough-on-crime challenger has hardened a view among top White House officials that Democrats need to further distance themselves from their left flank on law-and-order issues.”

WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 14: U.S. President Joe Biden announces increased tariffs on Chinese products to promote American investments and jobs in the Rose Garden of the White House on May 14, 2024 in Washington, DC. In order to protect American businesses, Biden announced the raising of tariffs on Chinese imports that he says are unfairly subsidized by Beijing, including electric
 vehicles, solar cells, semiconductors and advanced batteries. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)

In a new poll, voters penalize President Joe Biden for inflation more than Donald Trump for abortion. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

IT’S STILL THE ECONOMY, STUPID — Another day, another set of polls showing DONALD TRUMP narrowly but consistently beating President JOE BIDEN. The Swing State Project — a collab of the Cook Political Report, GOP firm GS Strategy Group and Democratic firm BSG — finds Trump ahead by 3 across an aggregate of seven swing states (or by 5 with third-party candidates included), and winning each state except for a tie in Wisconsin.

And a new national poll from Marquette Law School finds anywhere from a 3-point Trump lead to a tied race, depending on likely vs. registered voters and whether other candidates are included. (N.B. for debate watchers: ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., whom both polls show hurting Biden a bit more than Trump, clears the 15 percent threshold here.)

Strikingly, even as many voters have significant concerns about Trump on abortion, climate, his criminal trials and democracy — where Democrats have warned he poses an existential threat — inflation trumps them all. “The cost of living defines this election,” write Cook’s Amy Walter and David Wasserman. Many voters are prioritizing economic issues above all else, and they give Trump greater advantages on the economy and immigration than they give Biden on abortion.

That’s what WaPo’s Hannah Knowles finds in Chesaning, Michigan, where many voters say Trump’s hush money trial isn’t really moving them: Negative opinions about Trump’s personal behavior are already baked in, and they’re “more eager to talk about grocery prices or their dismay at the country’s politics.” Axios’ Hans Nichols notes that fast food costs have been hit especially hard by inflation under Biden, which could hurt him with low-income voters.

Some bright spots for Biden: Gas prices are dipping a bit ahead of the crucial summer driving season, WSJ’s David Uberti reports. … New weekly jobless claims dropped again, showing that the labor market remains remarkably resilient. More from Reuters

IMMIGRATION FILES — As our POLITICO colleagues reported this morning, Biden is getting close to announcing his controversial 212(f) executive action, which would allow him to close the southern border if there are too many migrants. The big question mark, NBC’s Monica Alba, Julie Tsirkin and Julia Ainsley report, is Mexico, which has become a critical partner in stemming the tide of illegal immigration. Nothing is final yet, and U.S. officials are still in talks with Mexican counterparts to get them on board. But NBC reports that the Biden administration is planning to roll out the crackdown (including other executive moves) next month, likely waiting until after the Mexican presidential election on June 2.

Biden’s potential moves will be the most impactful immigration changes coming from Washington this year, but the border is front and center on the Hill today too, as both chambers vote on bills that stand basically no chance of becoming law. As we previewed this morning, the DCCC is planning to make political hay of Republicans’ very exaggerated concern about non-citizen voting. But the NRCC tells us they’re lining up plans to punish Dems on this, too: Republicans will push the message that front-line Democrats are flip-flopping on immigration or supporting a series of benefits being given to non-citizens. Keep an eye on how many Dems vote for the bill to undo a local D.C. law: The vote is set for 1:20 p.m.

China begins two days of drills around Taiwan

 

Beijing’s military launched military air and naval exercises encircling the self-governed island of Taiwan on Thursday, framing the actions as a direct response to Taiwan’s newly elected President Lai Ching-te, who took office on Monday.  

 

Involved: At least 15 Chinese navy ships, 16 Chinese coast guard vessels, and 49 aircraft operating around Taiwan and its outlying islands, according to Taipei’s defense ministry. 

 

China’s military called the drills “a powerful punishment for the separatist forces seeking ‘independence’ and a serious warning to external forces for interference and provocation,” according to a statement from the Eastern Theater Command, which directs activity in the vicinity of Taiwan. 

 

Beijing’s foreign ministry views the drills as “a necessary and legitimate move to crack down on ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces and their separatist activities and send a warning to external interference and provocations,” said spokesman Wang Wenbin Thursday in the capital.

Macron arrives in Germany for rare state visit as EU elections loom
Emmanuel Macron on Sunday arrived in Berlin on the first state visit to Germany by a French president in a quarter century, seeking to ease recent tensions and warn of the dangers of the far right ahead…

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As the Russians advance towards Kharkiv, Ukrainians head to the dance floor

After two years under bombardment, they are determined to live life to the full

We arrived in Kharkiv at lunchtime on Friday May 10th, as news was breaking that Russian troops had crossed the border, around 30km away, early that morning. “Shit, it’s war again,” thought Artem Vusyk, a theatre director. More than a year and a half ago, Russian forces had been driven back from the outskirts of the city by a Ukrainian counter-offensive. This was the first time since then that they had set foot in this corner of eastern Ukraine, just as Ukrainian resolve seemed to be fraying along the front line.

Vusyk ended his rehearsal early after a friend, serving on the front line, called to report the Russian advance. Vusyk suggested the actors go home and pack go-bags as a precaution. Nina Khyzhna, Vusyk’s girlfriend, booked tickets on the night train to Kyiv. “Maybe we’ll go for a day or two,” he mused. “I don’t want to leave Kharkiv, but she’s anxious.” 

By the following morning it was clear that the Russians were slowly advancing. “Everyone makes their own decision whether to stay here or to leave,” Oleh Syniehubov, the regional governor, told us. 

An air-raid alert sounded near-continuously over the course of the weekend but life in the city seemed almost normal. On Saturday, at the main square, a handful of protesters holding hand-drawn placards complained that the council was spending too much on maintaining the parks. “We think it is improper to waste money during this cruel war. We are now at war and they are planting flower beds and reconstructing monuments! The city should fund our army more, otherwise it will be the occupiers enjoying our parks or destroying them,” said Olena, a sturdy and steadfast biology researcher. “I don’t think our streets or parks should be neglected or left in a mess,” she added, “but they buy foreign exotics, very expensive flowers.”
Read the full article →

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On Wednesday, May 22, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, who had been the candidate for anti-Trump Republicans, said she will vote for Trump. Haley ran against Trump for the Republican presidential nomination and maintained a steady stream of criticism of him, calling him “unstable,” “unhinged” and “a disaster…for our party.” Since she suspended her campaign in early March, she has continued to poll at around 20% of Republican primary voters. 

There are two ways to look at Haley’s capitulation. It might show that Trump is so strong that he has captured the entire party and is sweeping it before him. In contrast, it might show that Trump is weak, and Haley made this concession to his voters either in hopes of stepping into his place or in a desperate move to cobble the party, whose leaders are keenly aware they are an unpopular minority in the country, together. 

The Republican Party is in the midst of a civil war. The last of the establishment Republican leaders who controlled the party before 2016 are trying to wrest control of it back from Trump’s MAGA Republicans, who have taken control of the key official positions. At the same time, Trump’s MAGA voters, while a key part of the Republican base, have pushed the party so far right they have left the majority of Americans—including Republicans—far behind.

Abortion remains a major political problem for Republicans. Trump appointed the three Supreme Court justices who provided the votes to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that recognized the constitutional right to abortion, and he has boasted repeatedly that he ended Roe. This pleases his white evangelical base but not the majority of the American people.

According to a recent Pew poll, 63% of Americans believe that abortion should be legal in most or all cases, while only 36% think it should be illegal in most or all cases. But Republicans are continuing to push unpopular antiabortion legislation. On Thursday, Louisiana lawmakers approved a law classifying mifepristone and misoprostol, two drugs commonly used in abortions, as dangerous drugs—a category usually reserved for addictive medications—making it a crime to possess abortion pills without a prescription. 

Louisiana prohibits abortions except to save the life of the mother or in cases in which the fetus has a condition incompatible with life. The law requires doctors to get a special license to prescribe the drugs, one of which is used for routine reproductive care as well as abortions. The state would then keep a record of those prescriptions, effectively a database to monitor women’s pregnancies and the doctors who treat them. Louisiana governor Jeff Landry, a Republican, is expected to sign the measure into law. 

Trump has repeatedly promised to weigh in on the mifepristone question but, likely aware that he cannot please both his base and voters, has not done so. On Tuesday, May 21, though, he stepped into a related problem. Since the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision overturned Roe v. Wade, antiabortion activists have begun to talk about contraception as abortion, with some warning that it is “unbiblical.” But in February, 80% of voters polled said that contraception was “deeply important” to them, including 72% of Republican voters. On Tuesday, Trump said he was open to regulating contraception and that his campaign would issue a policy statement on contraception “very shortly.” He later walked back his earlier comments, saying they had been misinterpreted.

On May 19 the same judge who tried to remove mifepristone from the market by rescinding the FDA approval of it, Trump-appointed U.S. District Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk, blocked the Biden administration from implementing a new rule that requires sellers at gun shows and online to get licenses and conduct background checks. The rule closes what’s known as the “gun show loophole.” According to the Penn State McCourtney Institute for Democracy, 86% of Americans want mandatory background checks for all gun purchases. 

Trump himself is a problem for the party. His base is absolutely loyal, but he is a deeply problematic candidate for anyone else. As Susan Glasser outlined in the New Yorker yesterday, in the past week he chickened out of testifying in his ongoing criminal trial for paying hush money to an adult film actress to keep damaging information from voters in 2016 after insisting for weeks that he would. He talked about staying in office for a third term, ran a video promising that the United States will become a “unified Reich” when he wins reelection, and accused President Joe Biden of trying to have him assassinated. He will be 78 in a few weeks and is having trouble speaking.

In addition to his ongoing criminal trial, on Tuesday a filing unsealed in the case of Trump’s retention of classified documents showed that a federal judge, Beryl Howell, believed investigators had “strong evidence” that Trump “intended” to hide those documents from the federal government.

Also revealed were new photographs of Trump’s personal aide Walt Nauta moving document boxes before one of Trump’s lawyers arrived to review what Trump had, along with the information that once Trump realized that the men moving the boxes could be captured on Mar-a-Lago’s security cameras, he allegedly made sure they would avoid the cameras. The new details suggest that prosecutors have more evidence than has been made public. 

This might explain why, as Asawin Suebsaeng and Adam Rawnsley of Rolling Stone reported today, Trump is pressuring Republicans to pass a law shielding presidents from prosecution in state or local courts, moving prosecutions to federal courts where a president could stop them.

Yesterday, Marilyn W. Thompson of ProPublica reported on yet another potentially harmful legal story. There were a number of discrimination and harassment complaints made against the Trump campaign in 2016 and 2020 that Trump tried to keep quiet with nondisclosure agreements. A federal magistrate judge has ordered the Trump campaign to produce a list of the complaints by May 31. Those complaints include the charge that the 2016 campaign paid women less than men and that Trump kissed a woman without her consent. 

Trump’s current behavior is not likely to reassure voters. 

Yesterday he wrote on social media that “Evan Gershkovich, the Reporter from The Wall Street Journal, who is being held by Russia, will be released almost immediately after the Election, but definitely before I assume Office. He will be HOME, SAFE, AND WITH HIS FAMILY. Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, will do that for me, but not for anyone else, and WE WILL BE PAYING NOTHING!”

There is no good interpretation of this post. If Trump does have that sort of leverage with Putin, why? And why not use it immediately? Is he openly signaling to Putin to ignore the Biden administration’s ongoing negotiations for Gershkovich’s release? Trevor Reed, who was arrested in Russia in 2019 when visiting his girlfriend in Moscow, noted: “As a former wrongful detainee in Russia, I would just like to remind everyone that President Trump had the ability to get myself and Paul Whelan out of Russia for years and chose not to. I would be skeptical of any claims about getting Evan Gershkovich back in a day.”  

Reed was freed in 2022 as part of a prisoner swap arranged by the Biden administration. 

Last night, at a rally in New York, Trump accepted the endorsement of alleged gang members, rappers Michael Williams (Sheff G) and Tegan Chambers (Sleepy Hallow). In 2023 the two men were indicted with 30 other people on 140 counts, including murder, attempted murder, illegal possession of firearms, and at least a dozen shootings. Sheff G was released from jail in April after posting a $1.5 million bond. 

Then, Trump’s people claimed that 25,000 people turned out for the rally, but they requested a permit for only 3,500, and only 3,400 tickets were issued. Aerial shots suggest there were 800–1,500 people there. 

MAGA voters don’t care about any of this, apparently, but non-MAGA Republicans and Independents do. And this might be behind Haley’s promise to vote for Trump. The unpopularity of the MAGA faction might allow Haley to step in if Trump crashes and burns, so long as she kowtows to Trump and his base. Or it might be calculated to try to repair the rift in hopes that the party can cobble together some kind of unity by November. As The Shallow State noted on X, Haley’s announcement showed that “Trump is fragile.”

But Haley’s statement that she will vote for Trump does not necessarily mean her voters will follow her. Deputy political director for the Biden campaign Juan Peñalosa met with Haley supporters in a prescheduled zoom call hours after Haley’s announcement. On Thursday afternoon the campaign issued a press release titled: “To Haley Voters: There’s a Home For You on Team Biden-Harris.”

MAGA Republicans know their agenda is unpopular, and they are working to seize power through voter suppression, violence, gerrymandering, and packing the legal system. But there are signs a bipartisan defense of democracy may be gathering strength.  

Notes:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nikki-haley-says-she-will-vote-for-trump/

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nikki-haley-announcement-2024-race-donald-trump-south-carolina/

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/haley-shes-dropping-feel-kiss-ring-trump/story?id=107370200

https://meidasnews.com/news/trump-accepts-endorsement-from-indicted-gang-members

https://newrepublic.com/post/181931/maga-spin-trump-bronx-rally-size

https://blog.lime.link/visualizing-crowd-sizes/

https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/fact-sheet/public-opinion-on-abortion/

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/23/louisiana-abortion-pill-criminal-penalties-00159735

https://time.com/6977434/birth-control-contraception-access-griswold-threat/

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/26/us/politics/republicans-birth-control-ivf.html

https://apnews.com/article/trump-contraception-birth-control-abortion-2024-8f73bb1b3a5864b24157f15eb272a3e6

https://www.vox.com/scotus/2024/3/26/24112540/supreme-court-mifepristone-fda-alliance-hippocratic-medicine-abortion-pills

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-judge-blocks-biden-backed-rule-expanding-gun-background-checks-2024-05-20/

https://missouriindependent.com/briefs/new-rule-to-close-gun-show-loophole-finalized-by-biden-administration/

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2023/07/25/poll-majority--support-universal-background-checks-gun-licensing-assault-weapons-ban

https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-bidens-washington/there-is-literally-nothing-trump-can-say-that-will-stop-republicans-from-voting-for-him

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-republicans-pass-law-jail-1235027139/

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/05/10/maga-mike-vs-speaker-johnson-00157258

https://abcnews.go.com/International/trevor-reed-american-freed-russia-prisoner-swap-hurt/story?id=101641167

https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-campaign-harassment-bullying-lawsuits

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/21/politics/mar-a-lago-documents-walt-nauta-donald-trump/index.html

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/05/21/trump-florida-classified-documents-motions/

https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/23/politics/nikki-haley-biden-trump/index.html

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A flagpole displaying a white flag with a pine tree and the phrase “An Appeal to Heaven,” a blue “2022” flag and a multicolored flag with a yellow sun in the center.

Another Provocative Flag Was Flown at Another Alito Home

A beach house owned by the Supreme Court justice Samuel Alito displayed an “Appeal to Heaven” flag, which, like the inverted U.S. flag that was flown outside his Virginia home, was carried by rioters on Jan. 6.

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