Monday, March 2, 2026

On Our "Virtual Route 99" As March Dawns....

Welcome to March here in the Daily Outsider.

Our team presents thoughts on legacy Media, the War between the Islamic Republic and the United States has begun, with perspectives from the team at Rest is Politics, On Iran and Ukraine, France24,  PeaceNow on the reality of Israel, and from Politico on Greenland:  

By now it should be obvious: CNN is over. Not over in the literal sense — there will still be anchors, studios, chyrons, and breathless breaking-news banners — but over as a trusted institution, as a cultural force, as a meaningful driver of the national conversation. The pending sale of Warner Bros. Discovery, including CNN, to David and Larry Ellison is not a fresh start. It’s a confirmation that the long, slow decline is complete. This isn’t a pivot or a rebrand. It’s the final stage of a collapse that’s been years in the making.

For decades, CNN sold itself as the grown-up in the room — the place you turned when the world was on fire and you wanted adults handling the facts. That identity once carried weight. But the erosion didn’t begin with the Ellisons. It began when CNN quietly traded credibility for access, clarity for spectacle, and confidence for appeasement.

The shift was subtle at first. Bad-faith combativeness was reframed as “balance.” Lying was rebranded as “debate.” Performative obstruction was elevated to primetime programming. The (sometimes) MAGA-adjacent contributor Scott Jennings became the embodiment of that transition: not a serious ideological foil, but a volume machine. He does not engage so much as disrupt, substituting repetition and deflection for argument. And instead of challenging that dynamic, management has rewarded it by allowing him to spew lies, insult the network’s own anchors and guests, and otherwise make clear that he gets what he wants — viewers and the truth be damned.

The result was predictable. What had once been a fact-oriented newsroom slowly became a noise factory. The network that prided itself on being sober and steady began chasing political favor. Credibility became secondary to positioning.

Why did they do it and what does that have to do with what happened yesterday? ...



On a weekend where the pace of news has been rapid and the deluge of information overwhelming, we wanted to help you make sense of what’s happening by delivering a range of voices from across our shows at Goalhanger to your inbox.


On Saturday, the US and Israel carried out missile strikes across Iran. Soon after, we learned that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, had been killed. Iran retaliated, striking countries with ties to the US across the Middle East.


In this email, you’ll find short pieces from: Alastair Campbell, Gordon Corera (The Rest Is Classified), Anthony Scaramucci (The Rest Is Politics US) and Robert Peston (The Rest Is Money). 


Our producer, Becki Hills, currently in Jordan, has also shared what it has been like to be a few miles from where missiles are landing. We’ve also rounded up quotes from the shows recorded over the weekend.  


And if you’re looking to understand the history of what’s happening now, there’s no better place than The Rest Is History’s recent four-part series The Revolution in Iran.


Thanks for reading.


Alastair Campbell, The Rest Is Politics


Having come back from Ukraine with a pounding head, a wheezy cough and a gravelly voice, I was really looking forward to a quiet weekend. I had even decided to give Burnley v Brentford a miss (we can save the debate about VAR ruining football for another day).


But some events are so momentous I am afraid you cannot sit them out. So within minutes of hearing about the US Israeli joint strikes on Iran, Rory and I were talking, and agreeing we had to do a special episode. 


As we recorded our live emergency broadcast from 11am on Saturday, Goalhanger boss Tony Pastor, who is also a Burnley fan, and was on the train heading to the match, WhatsApped me a link. It was from Israel’s Channel 12 TV station which, in so far as I knew about it at all, I knew to be close to the Israeli government. It was suggesting the Israelis believed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been killed in the strikes. 


I am normally not a fan of the journalistic process being part of journalism, especially with something so consequential. You know, someone tweets something, nobody is sure if it’s true but whoosh breaking news: “There are reports that ABC, we will bring you more as we have it”… It is understandable in the era of 24/7 news but it lends itself as a benefit to those with a bent towards fake news and misinformation, of which there is always plenty when bombs are falling. 


So as Rory spoke on Saturday, I did think long and hard about whether to mention Tony’s message. I decided to do so precisely because it would be so consequential, entirely possible given we knew his compound had been hit, but we added the caveats that we just did not know if it was true. Given Trump had said the goal was regime change, it gave us the chance to talk about what would follow. 


And today, now the news has been confirmed, and he is no more, we recorded a second emergency podcast to go deeper into the questions of what happens next. 


The truth is none of us know the answers for sure. Not Trump. Not Netanyahu. Not the new head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard corps. Not me. Not Rory. 


But we gave it a good go trying to make sense of it as best we can, and analyse the many many ramifications of what has just happened…


Some quotes from Sunday’s live show

Watch it back here


“There are big legal and moral problems with the way the US and Israel have conducted themselves. In the background, it becomes more and more tempting for Trump to use these sorts of weapons, or toys in his arsenal, almost at whim, he’s beginning to get the impression all around the world that he can do this stuff and there are no consequences,” Rory


“My big worry, and keeping me awake at night, is the fact that Trump is almost openly admitting that he doesn’t really have a ‘day after’ plan in place,” Alastair


“I’ve been talking to people who are close to the Israeli position and people who are close to the US Department of War position and people who are close to the hawkish side…When I say: ‘What are you expecting to happen next? Are you expecting this to be a new regime person taking over and nothing is changing, and you have just got rid of the top? 

‘Or are you expecting a civil war? Which could have the Baloch and the Kurds fighting Persians? Or are you expecting a stand off between a new liberal regime and former regime elements battling it out? Are you expecting floods of refugees? Or are you expecting a military dictatorship which is more friendly towards Israel and the US.’ 

“Their answer is, ‘I don’t know.’” Rory


“The one thing we have said again and again about Trump, even when he is right, and he may be doing the right thing, but he’s doing it very much in the wrong way with potentially disastrous consequences. He is always all about attention - and boy has this given him attention and boy does it mean that we’re not talking about all the other stuff he doesn’t want us to,” Alastair

Reading suggestions from Alastair (both from Foreign Affairs Magazine)


What it will take to change the regime in Iran by Behnam Ben Taleblu


Why Iran will escalate by Nate Swanson



Gordon Corera, The Rest Is Classified


Iran’s Supreme Leader knew he was in the sights of Israel and the US and yet they still managed to get to him. That tells you a lot about the extent to which Iran has been penetrated and the new world of espionage which makes it harder to hide.


The US and Israel seem to have brought forward their attack plan because of a window of opportunity where they knew not just where the Supreme Leader was but where he would be in a few hours. And where other senior figures were going to be at the same time. I was expecting a strike but not one of this scale or ambition. That was a surprise and it may have been due to the intelligence lead that came in which led to a change in plan.


The signs are that it was the CIA that collected the vital piece of intelligence. President Trump in his statement said: ‘He was unable to avoid our intelligence and highly sophisticated tracking systems’. They could, of course, have had a human source reporting to them but the reference to tracking suggests it was more than that. 


Last year, when Israel targeted nuclear scientists, the signs were that they were deep inside the telecoms and mobile networks of Iran allowing them to geo-locate them. And it is not just the officials themselves. If you know who their bodyguards are, you can track them too. It is all part of building up what is called ‘a pattern of life’ over an extended period. 


Washington handed on the intelligence to Israel who took the lead on the strikes against leadership figures whilst the US military concentrated on other targets.

It took months to find Saddam Hussein after the 2003 invasion and close to a decade to find Osama bin Laden after the 9/11 attacks. But the problem for Iran’s leader is that he could not hide away in a hole but needed to manage the country. That means meetings. And where there are meetings, there are other people and diaries and advance notice. 


All of this shows something that intelligence agencies have long realised – in today’s world of pervasive sensors where we all leave a digital trail, it is getting harder to hide and easier to be found. That may have provided the US and Israel with a window and a tactical window but is no substitute for a wider strategy. Even a Supreme Leader can be replaced.


Some quotes from Sunday’s live show

Watch it back here


“It was very tightly integrated (between the US and Israel). Two militaries are effectively operating as one and the two intelligence apparatuses are effectively operating as one…which makes it much more powerful. There can be a very clear and complimentary division of labour where the Israelis are hitting these leadership targets and a lot of the launchers and the US is doing a bit of that but also hitting broader military infrastructure,” David McCloskey, The Rest Is Classified co-host


“It took eight or so months after the US invaded Iraq in 2003 to find Saddam Hussein in his spider hole and Ali Khamenei is killed in the opening salvo of this conflict. It’s not a perfect comparison, but it gives you some sense of just how good the US and its partners have got at this kind of manhunting, tactical, how do you go find someone and kill them.” David McCloskey, The Rest Is Classified co-host


Hear more from The Rest Is Classified by signing up to the free weekly newsletter here.


Anthony Scaramucci, The Rest Is Politics US



The question is not whether the Iranian people deserve better—they manifestly do. The question is whether outside military force is the instrument most likely to deliver it. 

History suggests that durable democratic transitions arise from within, nurtured by civil society, economic development, and the slow, painstaking work of institution-building. External military intervention can remove a dictator, but it cannot build a democracy. That work belongs to the people themselves, and the international community's role should be to support them with diplomacy, economic engagement, and moral solidarity rather than bombs and regime-change operations that risk producing the very chaos and instability they purport to prevent.

So where does this leave us? I want the United States and Israel to succeed. I want the Iranian people to be free. And I believe, with conviction, that repressive regimes like the Islamic Republic are an affront to human dignity and a threat to regional stability. 

But success cannot be measured solely by the kinetic achievement of eliminating a Supreme Leader or degrading a nuclear program. True success requires a coherent strategy for what comes next, and that strategy must be forged through the democratic processes that distinguish us from the regimes we oppose. 

Congress must reassert its constitutional authority—not as a partisan exercise, but as a patriotic one. The American people deserve a voice in decisions that may cost American lives and reshape the geopolitical landscape for a generation. 

Democracies are strongest when they are most democratic: when debate precedes action, when the executive is checked by the legislature, and when the use of force is a last resort arrived at through deliberation rather than decree. The path forward in Iran will be long and uncertain. Let us walk it with the humility that history demands, the hope that the Iranian people inspire, and the institutional discipline that our founders envisioned. That is how democracies lead—not by force alone, but by example.

(Click here to read Anthony’s piece in full.)

A taster on the episode being released tomorrow from TRIP’s Katty Kay
Catch up on Saturday’s live show 
here

“Maybe the Democrats hope they can paint Trump as a King, who circumvents democratic process, who expands executive privilege. But if this leads to something that is more America friendly, even if it is in a transactional, corrupt way (that you are describing Anthony), that is something that is going to be hard for the Democrats to run against. I think there is a way in which Donald Trump can paint this as successful. I don’t think that means it’s successful in a year’s time, two years time, five years time…I do see a way in which Donald Trump can present this as a win to the American people,” Katty


“For a president who has spent the last 10-20 years railing against regime change and forever wars and as recently as the Venezuela attack said: ‘What are we doing in the Middle East?’, this doesn’t make sense…So maybe you are right [Anthony] maybe it’s just a distraction. In which case people are dying, including American citizens,” Katty


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The View From Jordan
By TRIC producer Becki Hills

My partner and I are on holiday in Jordan, staying at the Dead Sea with a clear view of Jerusalem, as Iran, Israel and the US continue to launch missiles across the region. 

As I prepared to begin producing for The Rest Is Classified’s live take on the situation, it feels surreal to be sitting less than 20km (12 miles) from the Israeli border.

We arrived in Jordan a week ago and travelled around the country before arriving at the Dead Sea on Friday, the day before Israel launched its first missile at Iran. 

On Saturday, we woke up to the deep rumblings of missiles being launched and intercepted over our heads. When we stepped out onto our balcony, lights were flashing through the sky above. 

Since then, we have seen hundreds of missiles sweeping overhead before being intercepted by the Israeli Iron Dome air defence system.

In the time it took for me to brush my teeth last night, my partner said he’d seen some 40 missiles shoot through the sky.

Our hotel, a popular resort overlooking the Dead Sea, is full of tourists from across the world. There are large groups of older Americans, a few young European couples, as well as a number of Jordanians taking a break from the chaos of Amman. 

On Friday night, it was heaving with guests thrilled at the sight of an enormous hotel buffet and a chocolate happy hour. By this morning, it was eerily quiet. 

Late on Saturday afternoon, we spotted a large plume of black smoke rising above Jericho, the closest city to Jordan across the Dead Sea. We assumed a missile had hit somewhere in the west of the city and began frantically googling to find out what happened.

At our hotel, all seems peaceful. Aside from the regular air raid sirens and large bangs, you could almost forget that less than 20km away, a country is at war. 

On Saturday, we met two women visiting for the day from Amman, one of whom works for the UN Refugee Council. They explained how the wispy cloud-like streams coating the sky were the projectiles from intercepted missiles. 

Every Jordanian we’ve spoken to at our hotel has told us that there’s nothing to worry about. “This happens a couple of times a year; Jordan is always safe,” they’ve told us.

Robert Peston, The Rest Is Money



Tomorrow on The Rest Is Money, Steph McGovern and I will be trying to answer the following questions. 


As the oil price surges, is that inflationary or deflationary? It will lead to a rise in energy prices, but it will also depress confidence and demand. Which factor will be more important? 

This matters because the balance will determine whether central banks - the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank - put up interest rates, to limit inflation, or reduce them, to avert a sharp economic downturn.  


Against a backdrop of acute investor anxiety about bad lending in the private credit market and growing fears that an AI bubble is set to burst, will stock markets absorb the Iran shock? Or will there be a sharp fall in stock markets?


And how will the economics of this - the likelihood of rises in the cost of living and a growth slowdown - feed into the politics?


Can Rachel Reeves’s spring statement on Tuesday adapt to this new reality? And for Trump and Starmer, are they damaged by a rise in anxiety about living standards? Or for Trump is all this a welcome distraction from his Epstein problems and for Starmer does it lessen pressure from his MPs for a change of leadership?


It’s Alastair here. Welcome to a special Rest Is Politics on a special Rest Is Politics TRIP - to Ukraine.


Four years on from a war that Russians cannot call a war, which Putin said would be over in a few days, and which Trump said he would end within 24 hours of winning a second term…on and on it grinds.


This week, I have been in Ukraine for the fourth anniversary of the “special military operation” (sic) that has now seen over a million casualties, with enough dead Russians to fill Britain’s three biggest stadia.


Rory is not with me but I have for company our young producer Callum Hill who will be making sure we get lots of film footage to go with all the chat, as I meet a stack of politicians, diplomats and hopefully what we call “real people”.

This is our diary from the trip, where Callum and I will try to give you a sense of what this place feels like, after four years of war, and whether there are any real hopes of it ending any time soon.


Day 1: Sunday February 22


Alastair

The last time I went to Ukraine, most of the world had never heard of Volodymyr Zelensky and it was possible to fly direct from London. Not long afterwards, Putin launched his all out invasion - four years ago this week - and so much changed.


To get here this time required a flight to Warsaw, then a four hour bus ride across a flat snowy landscape to pick up the night train for a 12 hour journey to Kyiv. For obvious reasons flying is not advised, nor even possible.


Sharing the journey with me was our producer Callum Hill. It’s quite odd really - the two most important males in my life are called Rory and Calum (my sons!) Yet another Rory (Mr Stewart, who unfortunately couldn’t make the trip) has become a big part of my life too while another Callum (albeit misspelled with a double L) features large too.


Indeed, as the car journey comes to an end, we are shortly to board the train and share a carriage through the night. Callum will thereby become the first non-member of my family ever to share a sleeper carriage with me. Quite an honour, I’m sure he thinks.


We were invited to Kyiv by the EU’s enlargement commissioner, Marta Kos, a formidable Slovenian diplomat (and former champion swimmer) who has the task of overseeing the next wave of EU expansion, without doubt one of the most complicated briefs on any politician’s desk anywhere in the world right now.


Ukraine’s president has made clear that he wants his country to be in the EU by the start of 2027 and Commissioner Kos has made clear that is simply not possible.


On the bus from Warsaw, we chatted at length about the various hurdles in the way, not just for Ukraine but other accession countries too. The economics and the politics are, to say the least, complicated.


What is absolutely clear though is that she wants the accession process to work, and sees a stronger, bigger EU as essential to our continuing prosperity and security.


But perhaps what I am most looking forward to, if that is the right way to think about it, is simply seeing the place again, to see how much it has been changed by this awful war, and how on earth the people are managing through a brutal winter.


Callum

Long day travelling. 5.30am start, flight to Warsaw, huge border patrol queue, and a strange Scottish man waiting for me at the gate!


We met our contact at the European Commission and he took us to the minibus which would drive us to the train.


About an hour and a half into our journey we took a pit stop and ended up in McDonald’s, a place Alastair described as “evil”. Whilst enjoying a tea, (no Big Macs in sight), Alastair revealed that he’d only been once before - on a wet rainy day on the Blackpool seafront with Bill Clinton and Kevin Spacey…


We continued on towards the Polish city of Chelm, where we were due to board the train that would take us to Kyiv at 5.45pm. 5.40pm comes and our driver stops the van and says: “You walk across the border, yes?”. He clearly had no idea we were getting a train. A sense of unrest filled the van.

Our friends at the commission told the driver where he should be going and he totally lost his head. He tried a three point turn and ended up backing his van into the barrier. But after hurtling through some backroads, we arrived at the station in the nick of time.


Once on board, we had to walk through about 10 carriages to find our bed for the night. You’ll see from the photo that there isn’t much room, made all the tighter by the body armour and helmet. We’re currently sitting at the Ukrainian border waiting for our passports to go through. More tomorrow…

Alastair on the sleeper train to Ukraine


Day 2: Monday February 23


Alastair

We’ve just been at the launch of something called RDNA5. It stands for the fifth Rapid and Damage Needs Assessment. The five is there because we are now entering the fifth year of the Ukraine war. Amid the plethora of facts, figures and analysis, perhaps the most eye-catching was the predicted costs of reconstruction of Ukraine over the next decade: six hundred billion dollars.


The report is jointly authored by the government of Ukraine, the World Bank, the EU and the UN. I’ve not had time to read it all yet but a skim tells me it is a serious piece of work.  


Earlier I had a really good meeting with a TRIP fan (“I often fall asleep to your lovely voice,” she said)  – the EU Ambassador Katarina Mathernovawho has clearly fallen in love with this place.


She said she had been trying desperately to show the world the sheer inhumanity of Putin’s weaponisation of winter as another tactic in war. She told me of a nearby energy plant attacked recently which, in one instant, deprived 350,000 people of heat in the brutal winter the Ukrainians have been living through.


“We hear a lot about the frontline. But the frontline is not just the frontline,” she said. “Kyiv is the frontline. The whole country is the frontline because he is attacking the survival of the people.”


That was also brought home as soon as we arrived in Kyiv in the early hours of Monday morning. We were shown a burnt out train carriage which was bombed by Russia last month, and has been taken to Kyiv as a reminder of the barbarism they are facing.


Callum and I also went to Maidan Square. We will be there tomorrow for the fourth anniversary events but wanted to go when it was not the VIP high security zone that it will be when President Zelensky and other world leaders turn up.


The Maidan is not only the venue of the brutally repressed uprising in 2014, the year when Putin began the war by seizing Crimea, it is now a memorial to those who have lost their lives since the full invasion. There are so many photos of young men and women who have been killed in the last four years. Some of the photos were buried in the snow and I cleared as many as I could so we could see the faces of the fallen.


I caught sight of one photo of a young woman who was killed in 2024. She had been born in the spring of 1994, in the same week as my daughter Grace.


When we review the war on the podcast this week we will doubtless repeat the stats of fatalities. But the numbers, no matter how huge, can never bring it home in the way the photo of a real person does. So many photos. So many young and vibrant faces. So many lost lives. So many blue and yellow flags. As memorials go, it is as moving as they get.

Tributes in Maidan Square


Callum

The night train was potentially the least conducive vehicle for sleeping I’ve ever been in. Noisy, cramped, stuffy, shaking…Whilst I’m sure he has his own more luxurious compartment, it’s still incomprehensible to me that even Zelensky often makes that same journey when he leaves the country. It’s an exhausting way to travel.

But not to be deterred by a lack of sleep, we began the day’s first meeting at 5am with the head of Ukraine’s railways. He showed us his map of incoming drone attacks and described how he used this to inform whether a train should be stopped. He also showed us a carriage which had been turned into an overflow ICU  - a real display of the ingenuity we’ve seen the Ukrainians champion over the past four years.


We then checked into our hotel (and I want to pay a special thank you to Alex Hack-Roberts who works at Goalhanger and makes sure trips like this run smoothly) and met for breakfast.


The day has been back-to-back with meetings, events, and speeches. I thought I knew this already, but the level of energy required to be a political operator is remarkable. To see the commissioner’s stamina has been so impressive. No breaks, eating on the move, constant attention.


We’ve seen some incredible things. 18-year-olds, forced by Putin to forgo their teenage years, mobilising national campaigns to push Ukraine harder into joining the EU. We’ve seen some nightmarish things. An apartment block, opposite the national bank, ripped apart by Russian rockets.


As I write this, an air raid siren sounds on my phone. I look up at the boy serving me at the bar (I put him at no older than 16). He shrugs as if this is an alert for a bad weather forecast and carries on.

Most people in the room clearly have their alarms disabled and don’t react. Our security tell us to stay. No one leaves for the shelter. I understand we’re in the safest part of the city - close to the embassies, by the main cathedrals, with air defences - but to be so relaxed about an objectively terrifying thing is still quite a sight.


That’s enough for today and what’s weighing on my mind is the fact that Boris Johnson is in town. Who knows what Alastair will say when he sees him. More tomorrow…

A train carriage turned into an ICU unit


Day 3: Tuesday February 24


Alastair

Today was Memorial Day. And very very moving it was.


President Zelensky and his wife were joined by a number of fellow leaders from around the world (though interestingly- scandalously one might think- there was no senior US figure I could pick out among the crowds of dignitaries in Maidan Square.)


Children gave the leaders candles which were laid down in front of the mass of flags and photos of the fallen. They then stood in silence, heads bowed. It was simple. But touching. And a privilege to be there, if only as an expression of support.


Zelensky looked tired, and a little stressed, and no wonder. Four years. So much pressure. So many dead. So many decisions. So many relationships to manage. So many geopolitical waves to surf.


And perhaps more critics at home than I realised, mainly at the pace of reforms being demanded by the EU as Ukraine seeks to become a member.


Call me a pro EU, anti-Brexit obsessive if you like, but it is impossible to overstate the desire among Ukrainians to become a member. In a recent poll, as I told Rory when we recorded the podcast later, three quarters said they would support membership even if for a short time it made them poorer.


One of the chief architects of Brexit, Boris Johnson, was in town today, speaking on a panel at the Hyatt hotel. I gave it a miss, but later learned that he had spoken up in favour of Ukraine’s membership of the EU. And of course there was a wisecrack to go with this splendid piece of hypocrisy. “We have created a big vacancy.” Jolly wheeze what?


Johnson is without doubt more popular here than in Britain, and his shtick clearly still has some support among those who have never seen it before.


But it was another former Tory I was pleased to run into. Jack Lopresti was an MP from 2010 but was swept away in the Starmer Labour landslide.


Since when he has, in his 50s, joined the Ukrainian army. We did a little interview with him about his experience, which we will put out with lots of other material we have gathered in the coming days. Not all Tories are terrible, you see.

Zelensky and other leaders on Memorial Day


So we are heading back to Poland tonight via another long train journey, along with EU president Ursula Von der Leyen and enlargement commissioner Marta Kos. She has been absolutely brilliant on this trip, as I say on the podcast.

We spent a day shadowing her through meetings from 5am to 10pm. And she came up with my favourite soundbite for some time. At a meeting with writers and artists she said “every act of creativity is an act of resistance” - not a bad thought in what has become a battle between dictatorship and freedom.

Callum

The morning started with the memorial ceremony at the Maidan. We were put on the bus with the press pack and what could’ve been a five minute walk took us about 20 minutes in a roasting hot van... On trips like this it’s very common for Alastair to constantly bump into people he knows so I was not shocked to see him in the security queue chatting to someone new. I realised it was none other than Beth Rigby!


After the ceremony, it was time to record the pod. As many of you will have seen it was not our most glamorous backdrop, Alastair at his desk in his hotel room whilst I sat on the floor to his left. Hopefully everyone enjoyed the episode - we promise that Rory quoting Dr Johnson really was off the top of his head.


The bulk of the day was spent at the conference we went to subsequently. No doubt the most interesting man we met was Jack Lopresti, a former Tory MP who after losing his seat in 2024 decided to sign up for the Ukrainian army. We recorded a short interview with him which will be out soon.


The funniest moment of the conference was when another man called Alastair came up to us and told us that he’d been given AC’s pass for getting around the conference. No likeness. Completely different surnames. (Doesn’t say a lot for Ukrainian security…)


Unfortunately we didn’t see Boris Johnson, but as Alastair mentioned we heard a lot about what he said. Probably for the best we didn’t see him.


We finished with a few drinks with the European Commission before heading off for the night train home, more on that tomorrow…


Day 4: Wednesday February 25


Alastair

Back in Poland. Another 12 hour train journey behind us. The train was something of an upgrade which might be because we were travelling with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her team. 


Indeed, I should put on record the amazing help we had from those dreaded “Brussels bureaucrats.” They were superb. By allowing us to shadow enlargement commissioner Marta Kos, and essentially be accredited as part of her team, we were able to pack in dozens of meetings. I hope the podcast I recorded with Rory yesterday gave you some sense of how bloody hard top politicians and diplomats work. 


I must say Marta Kos was a revelation. Not just the work rate and the energy. But she was so on top of the detail of her brief and much more. And from our perspective it was fascinating to see the zeal - at times it felt almost like desperation - with which Ukrainians want to be part of the EU.


Marta was once a journalist and she has that journalistic curiosity and determination to go after interesting people and moments. So as we waited for a car to take us from the hotel to the station in Kyiv last night, when she spotted the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Yulia Svyrydenko, walking through the lobby she grabbed me and said “Alastair come on you must meet Yulia.” 


Hence I found myself having an, at times, hilarious conversation about the difference between men and women and how they do politics. Fair to say both think the world could do with more women in senior political positions. 


I had seen the PM earlier when she was speaking at the launch of the latest report on the damage assessment of the war. But this was her being very relaxed, and funny. When Marta pointed to the PM’s very high heels, and I stared at them wondering how she manages to walk in them at all, let alone with snow and ice on the ground, she laughed and said: “My rule one … the harder the times, the better you should dress.” She was very very elegant. 


We had a nightcap with Marta and her team on the train, where she asked everyone - me and Callum included - to say three things we had done well and three things we could have done better. (For me to know and everyone else to find out!)


It was an interesting exercise and the debate that followed threw up some good ideas about the many future trips lined up as she goes from one EU candidate country to the next. 


With so many leaders and VIPs on the train, we were met by an enormous convoy and driven to a nearby airport, where I did a final short interview with Commissioner Kos. I also recorded a video for the daughter of a lovely Lake District woman called Paula, who works in the Von der Leyen protocol team. Turns out, Louise (Paula’s daughter) is a massive fan of the podcast. So I told her that her mum was brilliant and I wanted her to badger her boss to help get me an EU passport. 


Surely, the next step after the EU Ambassador to Ukraine, Katarina Mathernova, presented me with an official EU diplomatic folder in which to carry my TRIP research notes. 


Callum and I are now heading by car to another airport, Krakow, two hours away, to get the plane home. A bit tired, but with so many powerful memories and so much to think about, and talk about in the coming weeks. 


As for Trump’s State of the Union speech, it just felt so small and silly, albeit dangerous, set against some of the things we had seen and heard in recent days.

A final interview with Marta Kos before flying home


Callum

And just like that it’s over. We got to the night train around 9pm last night. As it was transporting the European Commissioner and other leaders, it was a bit more luxurious.

We had a few final drinks in the commissioner’s cabin before ending for the night. I would echo Alastair in saying how remarkable Marta Kos is. No doubt her political skills are top-tier but what impressed me the most was how welcoming her and her team were to a total stranger like me.

Managed to get a few more hours sleep on this journey out but we were woken up for passport control at 5am at the Polish-Ukrainian border. 

We headed by police escort (very exciting!) to Rzeszów where we then drove on to Krakow airport.

It’s been such a whirlwind that I’ve struggled to get my thoughts together but I have two main takeaways...


Firstly, politics is so tough. It sounds simplistic to say, but until you see it, you can’t believe how relentless these schedules are and how much energy is required. Secondly, Ukraine is rightly optimistic but they’ve got some big hurdles to overcome.
The corruption story is bigger than we realised in the UK. Russian tactics this winter have been brutal. And America has totally vacated the people’s hearts here. Europe is everything. Let’s hope that it’s up to the task.


  

 

At last night’s State of the Union address, President Donald Trump went on offense, seeming to try to set the terms for the upcoming midterm elections. Although the State of the Union in the past was an opportunity for the president to tell the American people where the country stood with regard to foreign affairs, finances, the economy, the public lands, and so on, it has, over the years, become more about messaging and future plans rather than a summing up of the past year.

With his approval ratings under 40%, administration officials mired in corruption scandals, and every one of his policies underwater, Trump delivered a campaign rally. To answer Americans’ concerns about his economic policies, the slowing of economic growth, and rising inflation, he insisted that he had “inherited a nation in crisis” but had “achieved a transformation like no one has ever seen before.” He proceeded to claim that the economy is booming, using statistics that were either made up or staggeringly misleading, like his boast that “in one year we have lifted 2.4 million Americans—a record—off of food stamps.” In fact, Republicans cut food assistance from those people, so they are indeed off the rolls, but “lifted” is doing a lot of work in that sentence.

In between his celebrations of what he assured the audience was a “golden age,” Trump turned the event into what appeared to be an awards show. “Our country is winning again,” he claimed. “In fact, we’re winning so much that we really don’t know what to do about it. People are asking me, please, please, please, Mr. President, we’re winning too much. We can’t take it anymore. We’re not used to winning in our country until you came along, we’re just always losing. But now we’re winning too much. And I say, no, no, no, you’re going to win again. You’re going to win big. You’re going to win bigger than ever. And to prove that point, to prove that point, here with us tonight is a group of winners who just made the entire nation proud. The men’s gold medal Olympic hockey team. Come on in!”

Trump said he would be awarding the nation’s highest civilian honor, the Presidential Medal of Freedom, to the goalie of that team, which had just won the gold medal at the Olympics.

He also presented two recipients with Purple Hearts, a military decoration awarded to service members killed or wounded in action; and one with the Legion of Merit award for exceptionally meritorious conduct in the performance of an outstanding service or achievement. Trump awarded two recipients the Medal of Honor, the U.S. military’s highest decoration for valor in action. After awarding one, Trump mused: “I’ve always wanted the Congressional Medal of Honor, but I was informed I’m not allowed to give it to myself, and I wouldn’t know why I’d be taking it. But if they ever opened up that law I will be there with you someday.”

Trump did not serve in the military.

But the party atmosphere was selective. Trump did not acknowledge the Epstein survivors in the audience, invited by Democratic representatives. Representative Al Green (D-TX) was escorted out after holding up a sign that referred to the president’s posting of an image of former president Barack Obama and former first lady Michelle Obama as apes, reading: “BLACK PEOPLE AREN’T APES.” And Trump’s descriptions of murders committed by undocumented immigrants—with apparent relish and with the victims’ family members in the audience—seemed to glorify cruelty and violence.

It seemed clear that Trump intends to try to persuade Americans who have soured on his economy and hate his immigration policies that they are wrong, and that both are, in fact, triumphs. He also appeared to try to answer concerns about the skyrocketing deficit on his watch by blaming immigrants for it, claiming that they are committing fraud that is “plundering” the country. He announced a “war on fraud to be led by our great Vice President J.D. Vance,” saying, “And we’re able to find enough of that fraud, we will actually have a balanced budget overnight.”

Trump’s tax cuts primarily benefited the wealthy and corporations, and pinning their effects on immigrants illustrates how Trump’s strongest calls were to his base. Not only did he portray immigrants as violent criminals, in a moment scripted for television, he then turned on Democrats in the chamber, setting them up to force them to back off their insistence on reforms to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol by demanding that they stand to show their support for the statement: “The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.”

It was a deliberate division of the country into “us” and “them,” a classic authoritarian move, that he followed up by calling the Democrats “crazy” and claiming that “Democrats are destroying our country.” Facing a midterm election in which voters appear strongly to favor Democrats, Trump went out of his way to try to define them, rather than his own administration, as dangerous extremists.

Shawn McCreesh of the New York Times noted that deputy White House chief of staff Stephen Miller, an adherent of the Great Replacement theory who is the key figure driving the administration’s crusade against migrants, made it “clear that the night’s performance had been built around this moment.” Miller posted: “0 democrats stood for the foundational principle of all government that leaders must serve citizens before invaders. Never has there been a more stunning moment in Congress.”

And he was right, in a way, because it was indeed stunning that Republican members of Congress cheered and applauded at the attacks on their colleagues. In his 1951 The True Believer: Notes on the Nature of Mass Movements, philosopher Eric Hoffer noted that once people are wedded to a strongman, they will cling to him ever more tightly as his behavior becomes more and more erratic. This loyalty is in part to demonstrate their own devotion to the cause, and in part to justify their own attacks on those the strongman has given them permission to hurt.

The behavior of the Republican representatives was really the only memorable part of the evening. Trump’s almost two-hour State of the Union—the longest State of the Union address in history—felt pretty much like a Trump rally, full of outrageous exaggerations, lies, game show promises, and attacks, and those are old hat by now.

In contrast, the response to the State of the Union—which is usually deadly—was a breath of fresh air. Delivered by Virginia governor Abigail Spanberger, the response was short and clean, and in a refreshing change from Trump’s constant focus on himself, it centered the American people.

Spanberger noted that she was speaking from the Virginia House of Burgesses, where “[b]efore there was a Declaration of Independence, a Constitution, or a Bill of Rights—there were people in this very room” who “dreamed of what a new nation…could be.” She continued: “The United States was founded on the idea that ordinary people could reject the unacceptable excesses of poor leadership, band together to demand better of their government, and create a nation that would be an example for the world.”

“Tonight,” she said, “we did not hear the truth from our President.” She asked, is the president “working to make life more affordable for you and your family,” is he “working to keep Americans safe—both at home and abroad,” and is he “working for YOU?”

She noted that the rising costs of housing, healthcare, energy, and childcare are pressing everyone. Trump’s trade policies, especially tariffs, have hurt small businesses, farmers, and everyday Americans, while the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” is forcing rural health clinics to close, stripping healthcare from millions of Americans, and cutting food programs for children.

Turning to the excesses of federal agents from ICE and Border Patrol, Spanberger highlighted her own career as a law enforcement officer working money-laundering and narcotics cases alongside local and state police to note that law enforcement requires “an abiding sense of duty and commitment to community.” “And yet,” she said, “our President has sent poorly trained federal agents into our cities, where they have arrested and detained American citizens and people who aspire to be Americans—and they have done it without a warrant.

“They have ripped nursing mothers away from their babies, they have sent children—a little boy in a blue bunny hat—to far-off detention centers, and they have killed American citizens on our streets. And they have done it all with their faces masked from accountability. Every minute spent sowing fear is a minute not spent investigating murders, crimes against children, or the criminals defrauding seniors of their life savings.”

“Our President told us tonight that we are safer because these agents arrest mothers and detain children,” she said. “Think about that. Our broken immigration system is something to be fixed—not an excuse for unaccountable agents to terrorize our communities.”

At the same time, she said, the president “continues to cede economic power and technological strength to China, bow down to a Russian dictator, and make plans for war with Iran.” “[T]hrough [the Department of Government Efficiency], mass firings, and the appointment of deeply unserious people to our nation’s most serious positions, our President has endangered the long and storied history of the United States of America being a force for good.”

“In his speech tonight,” she said, “the President did what he always does: he lied, he scapegoated, and he distracted. He also offered no real solutions to our nation’s pressing challenges—so many of which he is actively making worse.” Who is benefitting from “his rhetoric, his policies, his actions, and the short list of laws he’s pushed through this Republican Congress?” she asked.

“He’s enriching himself, his family, his friends,” she said. “The scale of the corruption is unprecedented. There’s the cover-up of the Epstein files, the crypto scams, cozying up to foreign princes for airplanes and billionaires for ballrooms, putting his name and face on buildings all over our nation’s capital. This is not what our founders envisioned. So, I’ll ask again: Is the President working for you?”

“We all know the answer is no.”

“But here is the special thing about America,” she said. “[W]e know better than any nation what is possible when ordinary citizens—like those who once dreamed right here in this room—reject the unacceptable and demand more of their government.” She noted the power of the Americans taking action across the country to protest the government and to vote. “With their votes,” she said, “they are writing a new story.”

In November, Spanberger said, she won her election by 15 points, earning votes “from Democrats, Republicans, Independents, and everyone in-between; because they knew as citizens, they could demand more. That they could vote for what they believe matters, and they didn’t need to be constrained by a party or political affiliation.” In that election, Democrats flipped legislative seats in Georgia, Iowa, Mississippi, and Texas. Now “[o]rdinary Americans are stepping up to run…to demand more and do more for their neighbors and communities.”

“Those who are stepping up now to run will win in November because Americans know you can demand more, and that we are working to lower costs, we are working to keep our communities and country safe, and we are working for you,” she said.

“In his Farewell Address,” she concluded, “George Washington warned us about the possibility of ‘cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men’ rising to power. But he also encouraged us—all Americans—to unite in ‘a common cause’ to move this nation forward. That is our charge once more. And that is what we are seeing across the country.

“It is deeply American and patriotic to do so, and it is how we ensure that the State of our Union remains strong, not just this year but for the next 250 years as well.”

Undermining the Chances for Peace – Israel’s Settlement Policy in Jerusalem (2023–2025)
Jerusalem, sacred to billions and central to any future agreement, is undergoing significant changes. 

While international attention remains on Gaza and rising settler violence in the West Bank, the Netanyahu government is quietly advancing policies in Jerusalem that are reshaping the situation and diminishing prospects for peace and a two-state solution.

Jerusalem: Situation Report 2023–2025 | In-depth Analysis
Key findings (2023–2025):

A. Settlements around and within East Jerusalem neighborhoods
  • Advancement of plans for 33,519 new housing units for Israelis in East Jerusalem (plans approved for deposit or final validation).
  • Planning of four new settlements in and at the edges of Palestinian neighborhoods: Givat HaShaked, Kidmat Zion, the Lower Aqueduct, Kiryat Menachem Begin (Sheikh Jarrah). Two additional settlements—Atarot and “Nahlat Shimon”—were advanced in January 2026.
  • E1: Approval and tenders for construction, alongside steps to seal off the entire Ma’ale Adumim area from Palestinians, including via a new road.
  • Promotion of four new settlements in the outer ring: Nahal Heletz, Shdema, Mishmar Yehuda, and Adam West.
  • Road infrastructure around East Jerusalem costing billions of shekels, serving the settlements.

B. Settlements within Palestinian neighborhoods
  • Eviction of 11 families (64 individuals) from six homes in Batan al-Hawa (Silwan), followed by settlers entering the properties; dozens more families face imminent eviction.
  • Demolition of 37 homes in al-Bustan (Silwan) in a process threatening the destruction of the neighborhood and the displacement of hundreds.
  • Tourism-oriented settlement projects in the Historic Basin: expropriations for the cable car to the Old City/Silwan; a new visitors’ center near Jabal Mukaber and the “Omega” project; and a tunnel connecting Silwan to the Western Wall excavations beneath homes in Silwan and under the Old City walls.
  • About 100 million shekels annually are allocated to security for settlers within Palestinian neighborhoods in Jerusalem.
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