On Our "Virtual Route 99" (W-End Edition): On Our World (Courtesy the Guardian of London)

 

02/06/2026 How long can the west withstand demands to take reparative justice seriously? In this month’s newsletter: addressing the division over reparations, placing heritage at the forefront in Manchester and reckoning with Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica

Aamna Mohdin   Good morning. Welcome back to the Cotton Capital newsletter. Did you miss us? A lot has happened since I wrote my last Cotton Capital newsletter in the summer of 2023. Reparations, once treated by many western governments as a fringe demand, have now moved steadily towards the centre of global politics. Over the coming months, Cotton Capital will take you through the people, institutions and political movements reshaping debates around enslavement, colonialism and repair, and the growing global pressure forcing former imperial powers to confront histories they have long preferred to keep buried. A deeply divided world In March, the United Nations voted to describe transatlantic trafficking as the “gravest crime against humanity” and called reparations “a concrete step towards remedying historical wrongs”. The vote marked a huge symbolic victory for campaigners and further galvanised a movement that shows little sign of slowing down. The resolution had been proposed by the president of Ghana, John Dramani Mahama (pictured top), who said: “Let it be recorded that when history beckoned, we did what was right for the memory of millions who suffered the indignity of slavery.” The vote also revealed a world deeply divided on the question of reparatory justice. At least 123 states, including much of Africa, Asia, the Caribbean, Latin America and the Arab world, backed the resolution. But the western bloc, including Australia, Canada, the UK and EU member states, abstained, while Argentina, Israel and the US voted against it.  Beating around the bush … Keir Starmer in Samoa in 2024. Photograph: William West/AP For many African and Caribbean nations, the vote was seen as another step in a long international campaign for acknowledgment, apology and repair. But western resistance has remained firm. During debates at the UN, several countries argued that because the transatlantic slave trade was not formally illegal under international law at the time it took place, there was no legal basis for compensation today. But, as critics have long argued, such reasoning reduces one of the largest crimes in human history to a technicality. The UN vote reminded me of Keir Starmer’s ill-fated trip to Samoa in 2024. Starmer was the first sitting British prime minister to visit a Pacific island nation, hoping to strengthen Commonwealth ties and project a renewed global Britain. Instead, the trip became dominated by calls for justice over slavery and colonialism. Starmer’s blunt insistence that reparations were “not on the agenda” went down like a lead balloon, while the silence of the then-foreign secretary David Lammy, who had previously spoken openly about the legacies of slavery as a backbencher, on the matter echoed loudly. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, has said reparations for his country’s role in the enslavement of African people is an issue that should be addressed, though stopped short of making clear proposals. Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, currently leading in several opinion polls, has taken a more confrontational approach, announcing it would deny visas to people from countries seeking slavery reparations from Britain. Reshaping the debate  Major shifts … Chris Osuh (left), the Guardian’s community affairs correspondent based in Manchester. Photograph: Ruby Ramelize There have also been major shifts within the Guardian. In 2023, the Scott Trust launched its Legacies of Enslavement programme, including the Cotton Capital series, and apologised after acknowledging that the founder of the Manchester Guardian and his financial backers profited from the enslavement of African people in Jamaica and the US south. Three years on, the Scott Trust says it has made “significant progress”, including hundreds of community engagement meetings, expanded coverage of the global Black diaspora, and initiatives aimed at improving diversity within journalism. We have also hired eight new correspondents across the Black diaspora. Ebony Riddell Bamber, the programme director, reflects on the experience of asking people what repair might look like here. “We have learned that repair means economic justice, through retention of property and land, or access to education,” she writes. “It means preserving and uplifting our culture and history; it means responding to the links between climate and environmental devastation and enslavement; it means being in community with one another, locally and globally.” Over the coming months, Cotton Capital will explore the political battles, historical reckonings and moral questions reshaping debates around slavery, colonialism and reparatory justice. For now, I leave you with a question that has lingered since my last newsletter: as demands for reparations grow louder across the global south, how long can western powers continue to insist the issue belongs to the past?

Editor’s picks Gullah Geechee people set out to keep their family land. Unclear titles and surging taxes are pushing them out | Melissa Hellmann UK slavery reparations must be top issue at Commonwealth summit, says former Caribbean leader | Natricia Duncan UK stole 25m years of life and labour through slavery in Barbados, says report | Paul Lashmar and Natricia Duncan France overturns law classing people as property – 178 years after it abolished slavery

Regional spotlight Each month we’ll bring you an update from the three regions where the Guardian is working with descendant communities in the UK, US and Jamaica  Cottonopolis … the Royal Mills in Manchester. Photograph: brinkstock/Alamy Manchester | A huge part of our history involves walking, marching, moving. So, when thinking about relevant ways to tell the story of Manchester, I latched on to the idea of heritage walks. Quite a few already exist in this city. However, from the ones I had encountered, I thought there was an opportunity to fill a gap where the story of Manchester – Cottonopolis – could be told in a compelling way. Greater Manchester Moving has hosted a walking and wheeling festival through the month of May for 10 years. When I asked if they would partner with me to create four new heritage routes for the city, the alignment in our values was undeniable. We joined with community representatives to select four individuals and couples who would go on a journey with us to respond to themes set for the routes and the festival – Heritage in Action and Celebrating Connected Communities. I am intrigued to discover what the response to our new heritage routes will be. As a proud Mancunian, I have a passion for telling the truth about what it means when we say that Manchester was the first industrial city in the world. It is a complicated truth – but we have to own it if we want our civic pride to have any kind of validity. Keisha Thompson, the Legacies of Enslavement’s Manchester programme manager  Amassment of wealth … Success plantation, Jamaica. Photograph: William Richards/The Guardian Jamaica | When Hurricane Melissa demolished the Gurney’s Mount Baptist church in Jamaica’s north-western parish of Hanover last year, it extinguished a beacon of the community, its pastor, Rev O’Neil Bowen, said. Standing for centuries as a symbol of resistance and endurance, the church and its congregation have endured through uprisings – in particular, the famous 1831 slave revolt led by the Black Baptist deacon Samuel Sharpe – and earthquakes. “This church is a beacon in the community, a place for people to gather for social events, to worship and [to have] funerals,” he said, adding that the sight of the demolished building is “disheartening for many”. Cold Spring village, and many of its neighbouring communities in Hanover, where residents are still rebuilding after the catastrophic destruction of Hurricane Melissa, were once plantations owned by Europeans who amassed wealth from centuries of trafficking and enslavement of African people. One of the Guardian’s 19th-century funders co-owned a plantation, Success, in the area. Today, members of the Gurney’s Mount Baptist church are worshipping in a centre that is a fifth of the size of the church. “We are really eager to get back into the space. We have not been able to host any funeral services,” Bowen said. The church, which is part of the Jamaica Baptist Union, is hoping to attract funding through the organisation’s hurricane relief appeal. Natricia Duncan, Caribbean correspondent  Deepening understanding … a dawn ceremony organised by Gullah Geechee community elder Sandra Boyd. Photograph: Rebecca Blackwell/AP Sea Islands | Over the past year we’ve listened and learned, and now we are grateful for the opportunity to continue collaborative work with descendant communities in shaping our response. We look forward to returning to our communities to share and validate the information gathered and support community meetings that enable resource-planning, sharing and learning. A key objective in the next phase of our work is to identify and move money to local partners to deliver on community priorities for restorative justice and repair. Our next step is to deepen our understanding of the community based work that aligns with the programme objectives and identify the organisations best positioned to lead and expand that work through collective action. Angel Parson, US south-east programme manager

What we’re enjoying  An illuminating read … the book Heiresses by Miranda Kaufmann. Photograph: Oneworld Publications This month I’ve been reading Heiresses: Marriage, Inheritance and Caribbean Slavery, by the historian Miranda Kaufmann. Much of the focus in discussions on the transatlantic slave trade tends to be on male enslavers and institutions, but not much has been written about the women who also played a role, profiting from enslavement through marriage and, in some cases, owning enslaved people after inheriting vast Caribbean sugar plantations. Kaufmann homes in on nine women, including Jane Austen’s “stingy” aunt Jane Cholmeley and Frances Dalzell, the mixed heritage daughter of a formerly enslaved woman in Jamaica who inherited her own plantation and enslaved people and married into Scottish aristocracy. It is a sobering, forensic and illuminating read. Angela Foster, assistant editor Heiresses by Miranda Kaufmann is published by Oneworld Publications. To support the Guardian, order your copy at guardianbookshop.com. Delivery charges may apply.

We want to hear from you What would you like to see covered in Cotton Capital? Let us know by replying to this newsletter or emailing cottoncapital@theguardian.com. We’ll be back in your inboxes next month.

On Our "Virtual Route 99" (Special Edition): 50 (Shot Rules) for Life For the Stoics

On Our "Virtual Route 99" With #RandomThoughts On Our World

Our team presents the following #RandomThoughts On Our World courtesy Goldman Sachs, Jacobin, and Heather Cox Richardson:

Week One in 250 to 250

Heather Cox Richardson and 250 to 250 May 30

This was the first week of videos from the 250 to 250 Project that we’re producing to honor the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. We’ve been trying to spread them all over social media, but I figure it’ll be worthwhile to do a roundup of that week’s videos every weekend in case some get overlooked.

We designed these to emphasize the agency of Americans—mostly everyday Americans—to change the country. Each falls into a category that defines what it means to be an American, including community, democracy, innovation, mobility, civil rights, education, conservation, and creativity.

You can follow these videos at the sites listed below, or under “videos” at my own YouTube page: Heather Cox Richardson. Or just wait until I send out the week’s roundup.

I hope you enjoy them. I’m finding them a lovely break from the pace and pressure of the daily news.

Follow Along | #WeAreAmerica250
Substack | YouTube | Facebook | Instagram | TikTok | Bluesky | Threads

AIDS Memorial Quilt, Narrated by Cleve Jones

Cleve Jones is a human rights advocate, author, and lecturer who joined the gay liberation movement in 1972, co-founded the San Francisco AIDS Foundation in 1983, and founded the AIDS Memorial Quilt—one of the world’s largest community arts projects—in 1987.

Charter Oak, Narrated by Senator Chris Murphy

Senator Chris Murphy, who grew up in Connecticut and now represents the state in the Senate, tells the story of Connecticut’s Charter Oak, a lasting symbol of independence and American ingenuity at keeping it.

Battles of Lexington and Concord, Narrated by Governor Maura Healey

Maura Healey is the 73rd Governor of Massachusetts, the state’s first woman and first openly LGBTQ person elected to the position. Governor Healy recounts the Battles of Lexington and Concord, the opening salvos of the Revolutionary War.

Rita Moreno, Narrated by Ariana DeBose

Ariana DeBose is a dancer, singer, and actress who won an Academy Award for her portrayal of Anita in Steven Spielberg's 2021 West Side Story. DeBose tells us about the inspiring and pioneering life of Puerto Rican singer, actress, dancer, and activist Rita Moreno who won an Academy Award for her portrayal of Anita in Jerome Robbins and Robert Wise’s 1961 West Side Story.

Yellowstone, Narrated by Jon Tester

Former Montana Senator Jon Tester is a third-generation farmer and former school teacher who has served at the local, state, and federal levels of government. Tester explores the origins and influence of Yellowstone, America’s first national park.

Thomas Paine’s Common Sense, Narrated by Representative Jamie Raskin

United States Representative Jamie Raskin is the ranking member of the House Committee on the Judiciary. He was the majority whip of the Maryland State Senate and a constitutional law professor at American University. Representative Raskin shares how Thomas Paine’s Common Sense defined the stakes of the American revolution.

Erie Canal, Narrated by Pete Buttigieg

Pete Buttigieg is a former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, a veteran, and the 19th U.S. Secretary of Transportation. Secretary Buttigieg tells us about the Erie Canal, the engineering marvel that tied the interior of the continent to the United States.

John Peter Zenger, Narrated by Dr. Jelani Cobb

Peabody Award winner Dr. Jelani Cobb is a prolific author, journalist, and Dean of Columbia Journalism School whose work centers on race, politics, history, and culture. Cobb tells the story of John Peter Zenger, a colonial newspaperman whose trial for printing critical statements about the royal governor of New York helped to define freedom of the press.

Acadians, Narrated by Dr. Jason Herbert

Dr. Jason Herbert is a historian, public scholar, and outdoorsman from Kentucky. Herbert tells us about the Acadians, French settlers expelled from British Canada, who helped to create today’s Cajun culture.

Rubén Salazar, Narrated by Sylvia Salazar

Sylvia Salazar is a Colombian-born engineer turned political content creator and activist. She is the founder of Tono Latino, a platform that break downs U.S. politics in both English and Spanish. Here, Salazar details the life of pioneering Latino journalist Rubén Salazar, who nurtured the Chicano movement in the 1960s.

Constitutional Convention, Narrated by Dr. Heather Cox Richardson

Heather Cox Richardson is an award-winning historian and the author of Letters from an American. She’s the author of seven books, including the bestselling Democracy Awakening: Notes on the State of America. Richardson tells the story of the Constitutional Convention, where 55 delegates constructed the framework for a new government.

Women's Armed Services Integration Act, Narrated by Representative Chrissy Houlahan

United States Representative Chrissy Houlahan is an Air Force veteran, engineer, entrepreneur, and educator who is continuing her career of service as the first woman ever to represent Pennsylvania's 6th District in Congress. Representative Houlahan shares how the Women’s Armed Services Integration Act, proposed by Maine Senator Margaret Chase Smith, changed the military forever.

The Democrats are determined not to learn from their failure

By Branko Marcetic

Usually, a report might become major news because of some kind of damning or inconvenient revelation that’s contained inside it. But the Democratic Party is currently in such disarray, it’s managed to turn even the act of simply releasing a report to the public into an embarrassing debacle.

The Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) autopsy report on what went wrong in 2024 was finally released last week, and it has quickly, and somewhat hilariously, plunged the party into an internal crisis, with DNC chair Ken Martin now facing calls to resign. I say “hilariously” because the reason for this has very little to do with what’s actually in the report and is entirely due to Martin’s extremely public bungling of the messaging around it.

To be clear, there’s plenty embarrassing about the report’s content too. But it’s revealing and emblematic of a Democratic Party that has been utterly in shambles the past year that the production and release of the report has become somehow a bigger controversy than what’s in it.

Then there’s the Gaza issue. Interest in the report soared the past few months thanks to leaks that suggested the party’s role in assisting Israel’s yearslong genocide, and how that contributed to its 2024 defeat, was part of the final copy. Instead neither Gaza nor anything to do with Israel or foreign policy in general appears.

Even more puzzling, the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) Policy Project insists they were told “clearly and unambiguously” that the autopsy found that Gaza was a “net-negative” for the party in 2024. And only a week before the report’s release, the Harris campaign’s digital director, who had spoken to the report’s authors, had described exactly how this had been the case.

Keep reading

Why the Odds of US Recession Have Fallen

The probability of a US recession in the next 12 months has declined to 25% from 30%, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Research's chief economist, writes in a report. He points out that economic activity has held up well and Goldman Sachs Research’s financial conditions index has eased back below levels seen before the war in Iran.

Hatzius says there are three reasons why the 10-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had only a moderate impact on economic growth so far: Oil prices have not risen as much as expected, partly because of unusually high pre-war inventories and partly because markets never lost faith that very large consumer price hikes would prompt a shift in US policy. Physical shortages in the likes of jet fuel have so far been met with relatively painless forms of demand destruction (e.g. a large shift to renewables in China and reduced flight schedules on lower-value routes globally). Fiscal policy, the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, and—with a brief interruption in March—financial conditions have been supportive all year. Under Goldman Sachs Research’s baseline assumption that the Strait reopens gradually, starting soon and finishing in late June, Brent oil prices are forecast to be stable in the near term and edge down to $90 per barrel by year-end. “However, the risks remain tilted toward more adverse outcomes, higher oil prices, and greater economic damage,” Hatzius adds. Read the full report. In case you missed it: President Trump’s nominee for the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, was confirmed as Fed chair this week. Listen to our Exchanges podcast for more on how Warsh could shape Fed policy.

Will the Corporate Investment in AI Pay Off?

For AI to live up to its promise, and for returns to spread beyond the semiconductor companies that have enjoyed most of the benefit so far, enterprises have to find greater value in the technology, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Ultimately, successful enterprise AI adoption will drive the economics for the entire supply chain.   “The general idea is that chip companies are supposed to thrive when their customers thrive,” writes James Covello, head of Global Equity Research. “They are not supposed to be thriving at the expense of the companies higher in the chain.”

What needs to happen to help enterprises create value from their AI spending? They should organize their data to support the rollout of agentic AI. And enterprises need to route workflows to AI models appropriately, based on complexity and cost considerations. The researchers envision a new “orchestration and deployment layer” in the AI supply chain to help enterprises in this way and unlock value from AI spending.   In addition, Goldman Sachs Research’s equity analysts have identified a number of industries where large-scale profit disruption seems more likely. Those sectors include advertising, software, cybersecurity, and transportation.  Read the full article or find more of our insights on AI.

The Outlook for Chinese Exports

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and elevated energy prices are expected to slow China's export engine in the near term, even as the country's longer-term prospects in green technology remain strong, according to Goldman Sachs Research. "While the near-term outlook for China's exports may be weighed down by energy-driven demand headwinds, the same shock could accelerate the global push for energy security, creating a more supportive backdrop in the medium term," writes Chelsea Song, a Hong Kong-based economist at Goldman Sachs Research. China's real GDP growth is expected to decline to 4% in the second quarter (quarter-over-quarter, annualized) from 5.3% in the prior quarter, due to the effects of the energy shock, according to Goldman Sachs Research. The most immediate risk lies with flagging demand for exports from China’s trading partners in the developing world, which accounted for more than half of China's nominal exports in 2025. They are among the most vulnerable to a bottleneck in energy supplies, Song notes.

Politics & World Affairs What Price Hormuz? Simon Johnson and Amir Kermani sketch four scenarios for the Persian Gulf—none of which bode well for global economic stability. The Mismeasurement of Europe's Productivity Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, and Luis Garicano rebut the Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman's recent claim that the gap with the US is a statistical mirage. Economics & Finance Is China's Confidence Justified? Jayati Ghosh highlights the growing triumphalism among the country's economists—and explains why it may be misplaced.   Innovation & Technology The Pope Should Have Gone Further on AI Daron Acemoglu identifies the flawed and dangerous assumptions about AI that are guiding the technology's design. Economics & Finance Central Banking in an Age of Global Supply Shocks Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan sees current conditions as fundamentally different from those in which modern inflation targeting was designed. AI and Its Discontents Carl Benedikt Frey, María Lombardi, Raghuram G. Rajan, Robin Rivaton, and Dani Rodrik see reasons to doubt market expectations of big productivity gains and even bigger profits. Innovation & Technology The Tech-MAGA Breakup Is Coming Stephen Holmes thinks the deepest fissure opening up in Donald Trump's political base runs through the US electrical grid. Politics & World Affairs Whose Vote Will Count in America's Midterms? Reed Galen says that the country's redistricting wars reflect both parties' lack of a credible vision for voters.