Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Notations From the Grid (Special Edition): On #LifeIntheAgeofCorona ((Updates))

The War on Corona is continuing worldwide.   Our Hometown, Laguna Niguel, declared a local emergency yesterday and activated the local Emergency Operations Center.     Six Counties in Northern California declared a shelter-in-place order.    Our team has joined the local Second Harvest Food Bank on the Status of their efforts to be operational to support all Food Pantries throughout Orange County as Orange County ordered a shelter in Place Order & as this occurred:


BREAKING NEWS ALERT



U.S. stocks soared Tuesday as top government officials and legislators sought a $1 trillion stimulus package to counter the economic effects of the coronavirus, rebounding after the second-worst day for equities in history.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin met with Republican senators Tuesday to discuss a trillion-dollar package that would include sending checks directly to households.
  

Here is a sampling of the updates on developments around the World courtesy the team at The Financial Times and Resources For the Future:








Oil Markets in the Time of COVID-19, with Amy Myers Jaffe

In this episode, host Kristin Hayes talks with Amy Myers Jaffe, director of the program on energy security and climate change at the Council on Foreign Relations. A leading expert on oil markets, Jaffe discusses how the coronavirus pandemic has rattled the market and sent oil prices plummeting. Unlike previous oil crises, where consumers could take advantage of low oil prices and spend more elsewhere in the economy, the coronavirus pandemic and its economic ramifications have left many Americans out of work and averse to travel. Fearing a prolonged economic crisis even if the coronavirus is contained, Jaffe contends that financial institutions should closely consider the long-term risks of low oil prices and plan to eventually address “systemic problems”—especially if companies struggle to make ends meet.
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What is critical, also, is to start thinking about lessons learnt.   We commend the team led by Peter Diamandis in pulling these lessons from China as it has begun to "Flatten the Curve":   
  

(1) Fill the Skies With Drones

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Right now, drones above various parts of China are sharing information on loudspeakers, carrying signs with QR codes (for no-contact registration purposes), spraying disinfectant, delivering packages, and taking people’s temperatures.
To conduct temperature measurements, drones use infrared thermal imaging, which has not only proven more accurate than human-conducted readings, but also massively expedites the evacuation of community personnel. Simultaneously, drone readings have helped reduce close contact between community workers and residents, minimizing risk of secondary infection.
Shenzhen-based DJI has created a 10 million RMB fund to fight the Coronavirus, funding drone-enabled disinfection and protocols. Meanwhile, XAG — China’s No. 1 agriculture drone tech company — set up a 50 million RMB fund to use drones for disinfection in remote areas.
And in a surging nationwide effort, more and more Chinese towns have used plant protection drones to carry out disinfection operations during the outbreak. In Shandong province, for instance, villagers of Huji town used only two plant protection UAVs to disinfect about 480,000 square meters of the village in less than an afternoon.
But beyond agricultural uses, UAVs are now conducting unmanned delivery of medical supplies and the like. Having taken its maiden flight on February 6, a now routine drone flies to the center for disease control in Xinchang County, spanning the nation’s first anti-epidemic “urban air transport channel.”
Other unmanned delivery devices, such as in Wuhan, have transported medical supplies between JD logistics stations and local hospitals, avoiding vehicles and pedestrians in transit. And early on, Zhejiang Xinchang People's Hospital took the lead in using drones to transport samples for examination. Capable of automatically transporting up to 4kg of supplies between two unmanned stations without human operation, these drones tremendously reduce the risk of cross-infection.
How might our own local and state governments coordinate similar drone routes with hospitals, retirement homes, apartment buildings, aid centers, and others?

(2) Release the Robots

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Hospitals across Beijing, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Hubei and Hunan already have zero-contact distribution server robots.
Medical staff place items on robots, robots go to patients’ doors, and patients receive items contact-free. After completing a route, robots automatically return to the nurse’s station, where they are disinfected and continue delivery. In some hospitals, these robots can even provide contact-free delivery service to 20 wards, on average.
And in the F&B arena, robots and driverless vehicles are now servicing hospitals and communities alike with touch-free delivery of everything from coffee (Luckin’s “ruiji” machine) to fresh vegetables.
In the case of the latter, driverless cars now complete 24 deliveries every 30 minutes, greatly reducing the burden of front-line delivery staff.
Prompted by the outbreak, zero-contact distribution, self-driving freight, robo-taxis and other forms of autonomous navigation are now exploding business opportunities.

(3) Bring on the Biotech

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Already, one medical company (999) has released a new food line of “medicinal” noodles, touting immune-boosting ingredients, in an attempt to help stem vulnerability to infection.
Although in disparate industries, carmakers (BYD and Baojun) and iPhone manufacturers (Foxconn and Changying Precision) are churning out face masks faster than face mask manufacturers themselves.
Government and private sector capital is flooding biomedical services and medical technologies. A mere four days after the stock market opened this year, the biggest gainers were pharmaceutical businesses, medical device services, biological products and chemical pharmaceuticals — all up more than 10%.
Online consultations have gone from non-existent to the new norm.
According to Ali Health data, even prior to the end of January, total visitors to online free clinics exceeded 2.8 million, while servicing doctors surpassed 1,000. Meanwhile, online medical service platforms, such as Dingxiangyisheng (丁香医生), Haodaifuzaixian (好大夫在线), Pinganhaoyisheng (平安好医生) and Weiyi (微医), launched online diagnosis services for Coronavirus symptoms to avoid false-positive visits to hospitals.
Damo Academy, Alibaba’s future-driven research institute, can now test Coronavirus infection with AI analytics at a reported 96% accuracy rate by simply looking at a CT scan.
This new algorithm could tremendously alleviate pressure on hospitals, completing recognition processes in 20 seconds — far faster than the 5-15 minutes it takes a doctor to do the same.

(4) Virtual Classrooms (Keep the Kids at Home)

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More than 20 provinces, including Guangdong, Jiangsu and Henan, have now joined China’s “home-schooling” program, as over 10,000 primary and secondary schools and 5 million students attend classes via live streaming.
The boom in China’s virtual classrooms and online education has been utterly unprecedented, serving as an example the world can follow.
On February 7, China’s Ministry of Education shared instructions on the deployment of online teaching for students to resume classes from the safety of their homes, providing 24,000 online courses from more than 20 online platforms for FREE.
Meanwhile, this spring semester, 3,923 courses at Tsinghua University (China’s top STEM university) and 4,437 courses at Peking University (China’s top liberal arts college equivalent) will be taught through MOOCs, recorded courses, live streaming, and teleconferencing.
Countless online education companies are sharing free online courses for K-12 students, including Tencent Classroom, DingTalk, Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao, and VIPkid.
And while free education services help students, the EdTech business is booming.
In the long run, this surge in (what was at first interim) virtual education could dramatically change the face of K-12 and higher education, as penetration and conversation rates multiply.
More generally, OMO (online-merge-offline) environments will leap onto the scene, driving digitization, iteration speed, and operational efficiency of the education and professional training industries.
How will EdTech companies rise to this challenge in our own communities? Institutions? Universities? How will businesses seize this opportunity for a latent exploding market while serving the needs of millions?

(5) Remote Working (Keep Adults at Home, Too)

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Putting health and safety above mid-term economic growth, the world’s biggest remote work experiment has been unleashed by COVID-19.
On a recent earnings call, Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang told investors that, while a tremendous challenge for society, Coronavirus also gives people a “chance to try a new way of living and new way of work.”
As Chinese New Year approached its end, Alibaba’s DingTalk app quickly became the most downloaded free iOS app in China, and has remained #1 for the last few weeks. On February 3rd alone, users from over 10 million corporations used DingTalk, now leveraging its team chat groups, org charts and teleconferencing features. Companies can also track attendance and overtime hours automatically through the app.
Tencent has also seen dramatic growth in demand for its work tools. Now among the top five most downloaded free iOS apps in China, WeChat Work and video-conferencing app Tencent Meeting are serving millions of firms.
After recording a tenfold increase on February 10th (when many companies and schools resumed work), WeChat Work is now used by over 2.5 million companies, covering 60 million corporate users.
Compared with their foreign peers, like Slack, Chinese apps have jumped on “China Speed” to meet the unique demands of Chinese employees.
Released by TikTok's parent company ByteDance, corporate messaging app Feishu (which offers file-sharing and document-editing capabilities) has now released a “health management” platform, allowing workers to log location and daily temperature.
Staying home and avoiding contact is crucial. And every person counts. But in the interim, our ability to build and iterate on fully digitized platforms for the future of work is a forced opportunity like no other. And as I’ve said before, never waste a crisis….

(6) Unmanned Retail (Minimize Human Interaction)

No-Contact Grocery StoresEnter next-gen e-commerce and unmanned retail.
After completion of the new Wuhan hospital, an unmanned supermarket was launched within a day.
Open 24/7, the supermarket touts self-service checkout (no receipts), and received over 200 customers on its opening day. While it was reported that Jack Ma’s original launch of an “unmanned supermarket” in 2017 lost him about 4 billion RMB since then, the concept has now hit perfect timing. And companies from Meituan and Ele me to KFC have launched “no-contact distribution” services one after the next amidst Coronavirus.
While China’s e-commerce ecosystem is already far ahead of the rest of the world, there are still numerous items people prefer to buy offline.
But post-outbreak in China, buying groceries online has also become the norm. China’s Sinopec petrol stations now sell no-contact groceries: buy online, and have groceries put directly into the trunk of your car. No need to leave the driver’s seat or even open the window.
What novel business platforms will allow us to revolutionize no-contact, autonomous retail?

(7) Make Your Cities Virus-Resistant

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China has charged full-force into building emergency centers (hospitals), locking down outbreak epicenters, and mobilizing resources over the last few months at ‘China Speed.’
Integrating drones, robots, e-commerce platforms and novel biotech (as discussed above), the smart city has become an integrated platform for defending society against Coronavirus’s spread.
China has also showcased an extraordinary example of mutual accountability between government and populace. We already caught a glimpse of this when China’s government constructed 2 hospitals in fewer than 10 days as millions watched a live-stream of real-time progress, keeping their government accountable to its promise.
While we have yet to see how 21st century smart cities serve as community defense mechanisms, their help in protecting against outbreak in China should spur capital investment and innovation across our own smart cities worldwide. (Already, the Chinese government predicts public and private investment of 500 billion RMB (US$74 billion) in the nation’s smart cities.)
Creating a network of real-time information, WeChat and Baidu Maps have released clinic information covering over 100 cities across China, and over 3,000 clinics. Patients can now find designated hospitals qualified to treat fever and Coronavirus on their phones, drastically reducing confusion and wait times.
Smart cities can be further integrated in response efforts through the use of big data and cloud computing.
Cities might be equipped with early-warning mechanisms to rapidly detect infection, notify communities, and stem spread before it begins.
Now the new normal in China, smart cities are becoming preventative tools, whereby everything is tracked and analyzed for rapid decision-making in real-time.



#WeWillGetThroughThis


Notations On Our World (Special Tuesday Edition): On #LifeInTheAgeofCorona




These are profound challenging times.     We begin by an observations of the profound challenges being faced:

Even as U.S. cities cancelled St. Patrick’s Day parades because of the Covid-19 threat, bar crawlers simply moved their celebrations indoors. Over the weekend, they packed bars, pubs, and restaurants, ignoring pleas from public health officials to practice self-distancing.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Sunday urged Americans to cancel gatherings of 50 or more for the next eight weeks. But the lack of broader direction from the Trump administration has prompted states and cities to take drastic measures. California’s governor called for nightclubs, bars, and wineries to shut down. Other states — including Illinois, Ohio, and Washington — closed bars and limited restaurants to delivery and takeout. And on Monday, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut announced a unified effort to suppress gatherings and commerce across the huge metropolitan region. Crowds of more than 50 are banned, and bars, gyms and restaurants (except for delivery and takeout) will be shuttered.
Millions of students are also being told to stay home. Washington state was among the first to shut down schools. Since then, more than 30 states moved to shut theirs down, too. Los Angeles made the call last week, and now New York City, the nation’s largest public school system, will close at least until April 20. 
The restrictions only now proliferating across the U.S. follow those already implemented in Europe, the new epicenter of the pandemic according to the World Health Organization. Emergency decrees there have been more draconian: Movement in Italy is largely shut down, while in Denmark police are empowered to seize private property to enforce public health measures. Across the European Union, once-open borders are being sealed back up. And while the U.S. trails the EU in terms of robust response, they do have one thing in common: efforts that are “more of a loosely stitched patchwork than a single shield." -Linda Poon

Our State, California, has been at the forefront and as we went to press, a shelter and place order went into force.    We hereby present the following snapshot courtesy the team at AllAroundTheCapital on what has been the latest in California in the aftermath of Governor Gavin Newsom's Presser Sunday and his Facebook update late last night.  It is also of note that President Trump underscored the profound serious nature of the pandemic as there appears to be a Nationwide Shutdown of key industries--The Airline Industry being one that may look at a potential $ 58 Billion Dollar bailout as we also extend St. Patrick's Day Wishes to all: 




CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19:
  • California confirmed cases: 572 (+151 from yesterday), with 11 deaths (+6 from yesterday). Confirmed cases in 29 counties. [h/t SFChron]
  • The outlook: The pattern around the world has been a doubling of cases every three days and that what has guided federal, state, and local elected officials. If we assume the 572 confirmed cases in California (last time I ran the numbers at 8pm today) is the entire universe which it clearly is not and the experience in other countries repeats here, The Golden State would have 292,864 by Easter. Here is what it looks like (click for bigger:

    COVID Possibility

    If you watched Governor Newsom's presser yesterday, you heard the discussion of influence-like illness (ILI), which is a patient exhibiting flu-like symptoms. The concern is this cohort of patients who have tested negative for the flu but have not been tested for COVID-19. This number may be in the thousands, some who have recovered and others who are in ICU beds across California.

    I hope that the worst does not happen and we are ahead of the European countries. I only want to show you what federal, state, adnd local officials have been looking at in their decision making. That's why the below seemingly draconian steps are being taken, with a goal of flatten the curve so as to not overwhelm the healthcare system as it has in Italy. As the White House Coronavirus Task Force and other experts have been telling us, that's the biggest threat--having a case load that exceeds the system's capacity.
  • Governor's new announced guidance and requirements:
    • Home isolation for 65+ and those with underlying medical conditions: Effective immediately, the state is issuing guidance that all Californians 65 and older and those with underlying medical conditions under CDC guidelines self-isolate in their homes. The governor said that the state is developing plans to deliver meals to the 5.3 million and others covered by the guidelines that should be available today.
    • Hospital capacity. The governor said that the state is in active discussions with multiple closed hospitals for lease or purchase to reopen to increase the state's hospital capacity. Given that negotiations are occurring, the governor did not identify which ones, although health care company Verity recently got permission from a bankruptcy judge to close St. Vincent's Medical Center in downtown Los Angeles. Some city officials have been eyeing it for a possible homeless shelter, but it may be a temporary hospital before that, or perhaps a combination of the two functions given the state's emergency powers.
    • Homeless. The governor said that the state will use the executive order issued last Thursday to commandeer private properties (hotels, medical facilities, and other facilities) that are "suitable for temporary residence or medical facilities as necessary for quarantining, isolating, or treating individuals who test positive for COVID-19 or who have had a high-risk exposure and are thought to be in the incubation period.” (03/12 executive order, provision 8)
  • Schools. Governor Mike DeWine (R-Ohio) and NYC mayor Bill DeBlasio (D) both have stated that it is very possible that schools in their jurisdictions may not reopen in this school year. Californians should likely keep that in mind as a possibility.
  • Bay Area "Shelter in Place": You likely have heard that six Bay Area counties (Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara) issued a shelter in place order for all residents today. This includes shuttering all non-essential businesses. Here is the order and I'll write more on this tomorrow.
  • Los Angeles County: This afternoon, LA County ordered that all gyms, bars, and theaters be closed and, like the Bay Area, that restaurants that remain open only provide take-out and delivery service. 
  • Statewide application: During a Facebook video tonight, Governor Newsom announced that he would follow the Bay Area and Los Angeles counties with a mandatory order of statewide application. The language of the executive order is not available yet, but he explicitly said that it will prohibit dining in at restaurants. Bars, theaters, and other places of public gathering are also likely to be mandatory. Whether he will make the 65+ and persons with underlying medical conditions mandatory is not clear, but he is not expected to order shelter in place to the extent the Bay Area, a national hot bed of COVID-19, mandatory.