Monday, October 6, 2025

On Our "Virtual Route 66" : On The Week That Was In Our World:










Our team prepared a Grid of the discourse at hand throughout the Week, which we decided ot headline to discuss a perspective on the top brass of the US Military Department and some of the other discourse throughout the week.    We also curated a snapshot of developments with thoughts courtesy, Crooked Media, Institute for Policy Studies, Heather Cox Richardson   France 24 on Morocco as The Government Shutdown continues, and as the threat of a recession looms ever more with a notation courtesy the team at the Atlantic,  as negotiations to finalize the Trump plan for the war in Gaza and as the War in Ukraine rages on with potential expansion into Europe.


(Illustration by Ben Kothe / The Atlantic)

 

Alan Greenspan knows a thing or two about underpants. American history’s second-longest-tenured Fed chairman also knows a thing or many about recessions, obviously, and the two are related: Sales of men’s underwear, Greenspan once reportedly suggested, are inversely proportional to economic anxiety. As the theory goes, men see underwear as a luxury, not a necessity. When money gets tight, boxers get holey.

According to folk wisdom, when a recession is imminent, sales of snacks, cigarettes, champagne, and cardboard boxes also go down. Demand for lipstick, laxatives, instant noodles, used clothing, high heels, scary movies, and mini liquor bottles, meanwhile, goes up. Hemlines drop; law-school applications rise. Baby butts get rashy. Halloween gets less spooky. People gravitate toward public libraries and private labels. They spend less at restaurants. They stop dyeing their hair and dry-cleaning their clothes and going to the strip club, and they definitely do not buy an RV.

Well, supposedly. If you ask an economist, they will almost certainly tell you that a recession is indicated by things such as mounting unemployment, falling industrial production, and short-term interest rates rising relative to long-term ones. If you ask the people working at National Bureau of Economic Research, who actually make the call about a recession, they will say it is a “significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months.” They are highly unlikely to tell you that the best way to understand the state of global markets is to take a look at your ankles.

That’s not to say that pop-culture recession indicators are meaningless. A recession is a phenomenon necessarily defined in hindsight, usually long after life has changed on the ground: The Great Recession officially began at the end of 2007, but NBER didn’t announce that it had until the following December, right around when more than half a million people lost their jobs in a single month. Consumer behavior is a reactive measure of how much money people have in their pocket, which is probably why Greenspan was apparently paying attention to underwear. Many other pop-culture recession indicators—including the rise in law-school applications, the decline in demand for cardboard boxes, and the growing use of libraries and generic products—have been validated as useful signals about the health of the economy. They currently show what the more traditional indicators also show: The American economy is full of uncertainty, even though it has not yet tipped officially into recession.

But taking anecdotal intuition about individual consumer psychology and extrapolating widely can lead to some odd and unhelpful conclusions. The way people spend their money is personal, and the product of a complex set of factors. It’s also sometimes illogical. Case in point: In 2008, when the Nielsen Company did an analysis of consumer behavior during a recession, the firm’s findings indicated that whereas candy is recession-proof, soda—liquid candy—is among the most recession-prone consumer goods. And societies don’t respond to crises the same way every time. The hemline index, which holds that in bad times hemlines go down and in good times they rise, is one of the most cited pop-culture recession indicators. It originated in the 1920s, when most women didn’t work outside the home, style (and society) were far more rigid, the fashion industry operated completely differently, and the miniskirt did not exist. Even if it were possible to reliably measure hemlines on a large scale, they are also influenced, in the short and long term, by trends, weather, and norms. Economic anxiety is a powerful force, but it is not the only force dictating the way people act.

Here is what we know, according to Joanne Hsu, who runs the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment survey program. Generally speaking, the less money people feel like they have, the more likely they are to skip big expenses and to substitute cheaper, lower-quality goods where they can. (Indeed, sales of Hamburger Helper are up 14.5 percent this year, as sales of most luxury goods are down.) They seek out stress relief, good deals, and cheap indulgence.

They also apparently seek out economic folk wisdom. This may not be a recession, but it is definitely a boom time for talking about being in a recession. According to various reports, people are, at this moment, listening to “recession pop,” going “recession blonde,” and getting “recession nails.” Online, the recession indicator has quickly gone from pop-economic trivium to absurdist meme. Among the supposed signs of our impending economic catastrophe that whizzed past me this spring and summer like the world’s most depressing rewrite of “We Didn’t Start the Fire”: Labubusurban lumberjacksmessy bunscapri pantshot women in eviction courtHot Pockets changing its packagingthe Coachella lineup dropping earlythe resurgence of frozen yogurta new Air Bud sequel, an American pope.

Some of these are legible enough; many are ridiculous. (Recession indicator is this season’s Sir, this is a Wendy’s, the blank form through which anyone can launder a basic observation into something that sort of resembles a joke, especially if you’re not paying very close attention.) None of these meme indicators have, to my knowledge, been formally validated by the academic establishment. But I find it very telling that young people on the internet are casually invoking an arcane economic concept in order to explain the way their world feels. Maybe the ultimate recession indicator is how much people are talking about recession indicators.

Not that I blame them. “Recession indicators” are appealing like the 10-day weather forecast is appealing. We turn to them not because they are accurate, but because they offer the illusion of control. Everyone gets rained on in a monsoon, but it’s still nice to know to pack an umbrella. These little predictors make the abstract feel concrete and the future feel foreseeable, maybe even manageable. They reduce the economy—sprawling, complex, scary-big—down to something as small as a tube of lipstick. And maybe most important, they’re a quasi-academic way of corroborating your own reality—a vibe check, a pat on the shoulder, a Ph.D. for your dread. Starting in 2022, as inflation surged post-lockdowns, economists have been predicting a recession. Thus far, one hasn’t officially arrived. But try saying that to people paying $8 for eggs. “People don’t feel like they’re thriving as they should be, as they might expect to,” Hsu told me. “So I think it makes sense that people are looking for things that validate their experiences.”

Of all the unorthodox recession indicators, cardboard-box production is one of the most reliable, because cardboard boxes are a very straightforward proxy for the quantity of goods being shipped around the world. The outlook isn’t good: On Sunday, The Wall Street Journal reported that box shipments are at their lowest levels since 2016. All across the economy, people are buying less and doing less. They’re forgoing the things they really want because they cannot afford them, because they don’t have enough money. At a certain point, that’s indicator enough.

Related:


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What A Day: All Fed Up

Federal workers are worried about their jobs, their future — and their families.

 
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SHUT DOWN AND OUT

Donald Trump is threatening mass firings of federal workers if Democrats won’t meet his shutdown demands. Those workers fear for their jobs — and their families.

  • Behind the political theater of the shutdown fight, there are real issues for millions of people at stake. Democrats are refusing to fund the government if it means slashing healthcare assistance for millions of people. Republicans insist those healthcare funds must go. Neither side is showing signs of compromise, suggesting that the first government shutdown in six years could stretch out for days, weeks… or even longer.

  • For federal employees, the fight itself could be extraordinarily punishing, no matter who wins. President Donald Trump is threatening to fire large numbers of them to pressure Democrats to bend to his will. Those firings could come in “a day or two,” White House budget director Russ Vought reportedly told Republican lawmakers today. What A Day spoke with seven current federal workers, who outlined their fears amid a chaotic and unprecedented shutdown.

  • “I’m really worried about my job,” said one furloughed State Department employee. “My household and almost all of the households of the people I love most are entirely dependent on federal jobs, so there is a lot to lose here.”

  • One furloughed Health and Human Services employee has had two children since the last shutdown. Fortunately, her husband (who is also a fed employee) wasn’t furloughed this time. “At least we will have one check coming in if this goes on for a while,” she said. “If it does, that’s going to be really hard on us. And there is the real fear that we didn’t have before that my job might just be eliminated to make some kind of fucked up political point.”

  • For federal contractors, the situation is even more precarious. “Sad, anxious, frustrated,” said one Federal Aviation Administration contractor, describing her emotions. “We’re funded for about a month. If it goes longer, I’m completely screwed financially.”

Trump is taking the unprecedented step of using government websites and emails to broadcast his political message about this showdown — raising fears that it won’t end soon.

  • Senior Trump officials have sent emails to employees across multiple agencies that blame Democrats for the shutdown, according to messages shared with What A Day. What’s more, the Department of Housing and Urban Development posted a bizarre message on its homepage, blasting the “Radical Left.” Several other government websites posted similar messages. Newsflash: The government isn’t supposed to use public agencies to push one party’s political talking points!

  • “I’m very scared. Previous shutdowns have been a pain and frustrating, this one feels so uncertain,” one Social Security Administration worker said. “The political messages … are unprecedented, so it feels very volatile. Like, if you make any comment that is not pro-Trump they will make your life hell or just fire you.”

  • The State Department employee put it bluntly: “This batshit messaging is so dystopian. It’s so insane, it’s almost funny. Trump and Republicans have done nothing but terrorize feds since January, they threatened to fire us during this shutdown, and yet they expect to convince us Dems are the problem? Lol wut??”

  • While most federal workers I spoke with believe the shutdown will last awhile, all of them also support Democrats taking a stance against Republicans in this battle. At the National Parks Service, a supervisor described the situation as “a complete shit show,” according to an employee.

The HHS employee summed up many workers’ feelings: “It’s just so exhausting to feel like you’re constantly a pawn for the dumbest people in the dumbest timeline.”



WHAT ELSE?

Israeli forces ramped up their assault on Gaza City today, just days after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to Donald Trump’s peace plan to end the war. (Israel’s reluctance to stop fighting has been a major hurdle for peace prospects.) Meanwhile, Hamas indicated that it’s open to Trump’s plan — but the group wants more time to review the details.

The Trump administration froze $18 billion for two major infrastructure projects in New York City, according to White House budget director Russ Vought. Why? To make sure money isn’t “flowing based on unconstitutional DEI principles,” he said, referring to diversity, equity and inclusion. So… these infrastructure projects aren’t, uh… white enough?

The U.S. lost 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, according to payroll processing company ADP. It’s the latest sign of a struggling Trump-era job market, and things could get worse if the president follows through on his threat to fire more government workers.

Forty-three percent of Americans say that the Supreme Court is too conservative, a new record, according to a new Gallup poll. Before Justice Amy Coney Barrett replaced Ruth Bader Ginsburg, that number never went above 33 percent. (Somehow, 17 percent of Americans think the current bench is too liberal… um, who are these people?!)

Hollywood’s major actors union condemned Tilly Norwood, an artificial intelligence “actress” who multiple talent agents are reportedly interested in signing. “Are you serious? That’s an AI? Good Lord, we’re screwed,” real-human actress Emily Blunt said in an interview with Variety. “That is really, really scary. Come on, agencies, don’t do that. Please stop. Please stop taking away our human connection.” Between this and Trump posting deepfake videos on social media, I’m not loving where things are going!


Light at the End of the Email…

The White House withdrew its nomination of E.J. Antoni, an unqualified and hyper-conservative economist, to take charge of the nation’s jobs statistics. It’s a stunning walkback by the Trump administration, after public complaints from conservative economists that this guy can’t be trusted to provide reliable data.

The Supreme Court ruled that Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook can remain in her job for now, despite Donald Trump’s attempt to fire her. The court will hear Trump’s case against Cook in January.

A federal judge ruled that Trump’s top federal prosecutor in Nevada was unlawfully appointed. The Department of Justice tried to keep the interim U.S. attorney, GOP activist Sigal Chattah in the role past the 120-day limit. Turns out, you have to follow the law sometimes, Donald!

The Caribbean countries of Barbados, Belize, Dominica and St Vincent and the Grenadines struck a historic agreement to allow workers to work and live in any of the countries without needing a work or residency permit. That’s awesome… Can you please extend that to include the United States now??? Asking for a friend!

How can you personally help fight climate change? A new project is helping people understand that their actions can make a difference, even when the president and oil companies make a bunch of mind-boggling decisions about the environment. Take the survey here!

It’s the best time of year: Fat Bear Week. “Suffering from a dangling tooth on a broken jaw, grizzled Fat Bear Week veteran 32 ‘Chunk’ handily defeated an extremely large 856 to become the 2025 champion,” the Washington Post writes. This is Chunk’s first title, after taking part in the competition every year since it began and coming in second last year. Congratulations, Mr. Chunk.



 

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