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LAME DUCK DYNASTY
Donald Trump’s problems in the Middle East just became much worse, threatening to make his greatest fear come true.
President Donald Trump likes to style himself as the greatest president since Abe Lincoln… when he’s feeling modest. On days when he’s high on his own supply, he’s even “better than Lincoln, better than Washington.” As his second term limps along, the reality is becoming clear: Historians are a lot more likely to view his tumultuous era as even worse than a mashup of past troubled presidents like Jimmy Carter, Richard Nixon… and possibly (although hopefully not, for the rest of our sakes) the doomed Herbert Hoover.
Trump, of course, lacks Carter’s humility, faith, and moral vision. But clear parallels are emerging between their distressed presidencies. Like Carter, Trump is lurching into an election plagued by a crisis in Iran. Like both Carter and Nixon (who, next to our current president, looks like a Boy Scout), Trump faces the looming twin specters of an energy crisis and inflation. And now, both publicly and privately, Trump is spiraling about comparisons to Hoover, the guy who famously presided over the onset of the Great Depression.
How’s Trump grappling with these legacy-defining dilemmas? His motto seems to be: Keep on trucking, and hope for the best!
Trump is now staring down strategic defeat in Iran, and his only option is to pick the least-bad outcome, as one writer recently put it. Trump has privately discussed ending the war without forcing Iran to make a nuclear deal, according to the Wall Street Journal. But Iranian leaders, who feel emboldened by outlasting the world’s strongest military, want concessions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including compensation for damage caused during fighting and an end to sanctions.
Trump is downplaying this clusterfuck of his own making, saying that the U.S. is “low-keying it” with Iran and “only semi-negotiating.” On social media this afternoon, Trump insisted that he is the one demanding compensation.
His problems in the Middle East don’t stop there. For months, Trump touted the U.S.-negotiated ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Hamas even agreed to lay down its weapons, as long as Israel pulls out of the territory. On Sunday, however, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu outright rejected that agreement — scuttling Trump’s apparent diplomatic progress in Gaza.
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Will this mess tank the U.S. economy? Even Trump worries about the possibility.
“I have one primary wish as president,” Trump recently told Axios. “I never want to be the late, great Herbert Hoover.” But his Iran war gambit risks turning him into a Hoover Jr.
Just look at the past five months. In March, the average price of a gallon of gas hit $4 for the first time since 2008 — and has largely stayed above that threshold. Grocery prices also soared, as the Pentagon racks up a tab in the tens of billions to bomb Iran. To make matters worse, the economy lost more than 100,000 jobs over the past three months… and wage growth is on a downward trajectory.
Trump has repeatedly convinced oil traders and stock investors that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon. But the price of crude could surge past $120 per barrel later this year if the crucial waterway stays shut, bankers warn. If it remains closed through next year, things could get really ugly with the global economy.
“Any Republican president who gets hit with bad economic times faces the danger of being tagged as Herbert Hoover,” presidential historian Tevi Troy told NPR. “You don’t really hear people saying Jimmy Carter was Herbert Hoover. It’s constantly something that happens to Republican presidents.”
Will Trump be the first president to earn a Carter, Nixon and Hoover comparison? If anyone can do it, he can!
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