This originally appeared on Professor Galloway's LinkedIn, which we hereby present here:
Art of the Sellout
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In Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney had a warning for nations that have relied on the U.S.-led world order that provided (relative) peace and prosperity for eight decades. “If we’re not at the table,” he said, “we’re on the menu.” Heading home after last week’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, President Trump made clear that whether Taiwan was at the table or on the menu was entirely his call. “I don’t talk about those things,” Trump said, referring to a private conversation in which Xi asked whether the U.S. would use military force to defend Taiwan. “There’s only one person that knows that — you know who it is? Me. I’m the only person.” But the question isn’t whether Trump will stand by the U.S. commitment to an independent Taiwan — breaking faith with our allies is a feature of his administration, not a bug — it’s how much he needs to be given to look the other way. A: Significantly less than Xi was previously prepared to pay.
Quid Pro Quo
The conventional wisdom was that China was preparing to invade Taiwan in the next few years, but that’s shifted. The most recent U.S. intelligence assessment, in March, concluded, “Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification.” Seeing Iran and Ukraine deploy asymmetric warfare against opponents with superior firepower may have given China’s hawks pause. Also, not a single member of the Chinese military has combat experience.
Meanwhile, the Tracking People’s Daily newsletter, analyzing 7,000 official Chinese statements since 2021, noted that Beijing had softened its rhetoric from Biden to Trump, despite the trade war. Biden was seen as a systemic threat who was determined to “encircle and suppress” China, according to Tracking People’s Daily, while Beijing views “Trump’s transactionalism [as] something [it] understands and can work with.” I believe Xi made a deal with Trump: Look the other way on Taiwan, and in exchange Beijing will purchase enough Trump meme coins to make him wealthier than the CEOs who accompanied him at the summit. One sign of a deal: Trump said he would withhold a $14 billion arms package from Taiwan, without receiving any concessions.
Life is so rich,
Scott
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